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Thread: FBI stats.

  1. #1
    Regular Member self preservation's Avatar
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    FBI stats.

    According to FBI statistics there are 9,000 Gun Homicides per year (1999-2011) and in the U.S. there are approx 80 million legal gun owners (a 100 percent accurate count is, at this time, impossible, but 80 million is the most common estimate and can be found here: http://www.justfacts.com/guncontrol.asp#general)




    Now, let's be silly and assume that each homicide was committed by one (1) corresponding gun owner. Meaning that: 9,000 legal gun owners killed 9,000 people.




    [NOTE: we know for a FACT that this is not true because 1) things like mass shootings and other incidents of more than 1 person killed by a single shooter and 2) only approximately 2% of homicides (180 out of the previously mentioned 9,000) are committed with legally owned firearms.]




    So, if we make that assumption, that equates to only .011% of legal gun owners being evil/bad/criminals etc...




    However, a study done by Florida criminologist Gary Kleck found that guns are used by private citizens (not police/military/private security or other forms of law enforcement) up to 2.5 Million times per year to prevent crime and the vast majority of those cases never involved a shot being fired.




    So, with 9,000 homicides per year by guns and 2.5 million crimes prevented, that means that guns in the hands of private citizens are 27,800% more likely to prevent a crime than to be used in a homicide. To give that a bit more context for every homicide committed with a fire arm, 278 crimes are prevented with one.




    You see mass shootings like the Aurora, CO Movie theater and Sandy Hook Elementary splashed over the news for weeks but you do not see the massive number of cases per year of situations where a home owner chases off a robber (or potentially worse). You also do not hear of cases where a private gun owner prevented or stopped (probable) mass shootings like the following:




    Pearl High (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearl_High_School_shooting)
    Appalachian School of Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalac...f_Law_shooting)
    Clackamas Town Center Mall (http://www.examiner.com/article/medi...-armed-citizen)




    Mass shootings (while tragic and horrible) are the anomaly, they make big splashes in headlines but are very rare. Guns being used to stop/prevent crime is far and away the majority.




    Let me repeat myself: Gun homicide in general is not common, mass shootings are even more rare, and both mass shootings and homicides are almost never (statistically) committed by legal gun owners.
    In fact, guns in the hands of private citizens are overwhelmingly a force for good.




    We hear so much about "High Powered Assault Rifles", but we have never seen any sort of logical definition for this phrase. It seems that it only applies to AR-15 style weapons, but what defines "High powered"?




    The standard unit of measurement for a bullets "power" is Foot Pounds. This defines how hard a bullet impacts it's target.




    Facts:1) AR-15 rifles fire a .223 caliber bullet.
    2) A .223 round impacts with approx 1,124 foot pounds of pressure.




    Let's compare that "high powered" 1,124 to 5 of the most common rifle rounds in America:




    .30-30 = 1,760 pounds
    7.62x39= 2,108
    .308 = 2,648
    .30-06 = 2,820
    .300 Win Mag = 3,893
    (Note: foot pound calculations are averages. You will find variances by manufacturer, bullet grain etc. Also, all of those rounds (except the .30-30) can be fired from semi auto rifles)




    So with all five of the most common rifle rounds in America generating more force than the .223, how is the term "High Powered" being applied?




    As for the guns/weapons that are actually used in homicides, here is the FBI breakdown for 1999-2011 (these are averages of per year totals with an average of 14,009 murders/year and an average of 9,289 committed with firearms.)




    Handguns - 6,952 Murders
    Misc weapons (arson, poison etc) - 1,968
    Knives/cutting tools- 1,796
    Unknown gun type - 1,477
    Beating (hands/feet) - 865
    Shotguns - 459
    Rifles - 400




    So here we see that out of all murders committed, rifles of any kind are used in less than 3 percent of murders. The FBI does not give a break down of the various sub groups of guns used (semi auto, revolver, bolt action etc...) so we can not pin down the use of semi-automatic rifles.




    However, given that they rank last on the list of murder weapons and account for less than 3 percent of murder, it is clear that they cannot even be laughably called a leading cause of death.




    Although for a bit of a hint we can look at a 2000 study done by the ATF of the 10 guns used most often in crimes (not just murder).




    The study (found here: http://www.time.com/time/nation/arti...320383,00.html) shows not 1 rifle (semi auto or otherwise) on the list. They are all hand guns with the exception of the Mossberg shotgun.




    Recently the AR-15 has become the flag ship for "assault weapons".
    No one can tell how many "assault rifles" there are in America since the definition of "assault rifle" changes with the stroke of a pen.
    But it seems most people can agree that the AR-15 is an "assault rifle" even though they do not know what an "assault rifle" is.
    Using some rough numbers (found here: http://www.slate.com/blogs/crime/201...n_america.html ) we can ball park the number of AR-15s in America at 3.5 million.
    If I may be indulged another silly example, let's assume that AR-15s are the ONLY rifles being used in murders and are the ONLY "assault rifles" in America. That would mean .011 percent of them are being used in murders. (Please remember, the 3.5 million number is hard to substantiate. But we know the AR-15 is one of, if not the, most popular rifles in America. So as the 3.5 million numbers goes up, the .011 percent goes down)




    So can we please start to hear some logical and fact based reasons for the hue and cry over "assault" weapons?




    (all statistics for yearly murders rates and weapon types were taken directly from table 20 of the FBI Uniform Crime reports found here: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr.)
    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” Edmund Burke

    self-pres·er·va·tion (slfprzr-vshn)
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    1. Protection of oneself from harm or destruction.
    2. The instinct for individual preservation; the innate desire to stay alive.

  2. #2
    Moderator / Administrator Grapeshot's Avatar
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    Very convincing - nicely done.
    You will not rise to the occasion; you will fall back on your level of training.” Archilochus, 650 BC

    Old and treacherous will beat young and skilled every time. Yata hey.

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    Except that to my knowledge 0 people have been killed by an assault rifle recently. I use the U.S. Army's definition of an assault rifle. - "Assault rifles are short, compact, selective-fire weapons that fire a cartridge intermediate in power between submachinegun and rifle cartridges. Assault rifles have mild recoil characteristics and, because of this, are capable of delivering effective full-automatic fire at ranges up to 300 meters." I haven't heard of any automatic weapons being used...and if they were I'm sure we would hear about it all day and night.

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    Good analysis.

    Rationality. Gotta love it.

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    Your math is a little off. 9000 divided by 80 million is actually .00011%. That's actually a really big difference from .011%. So, instead of a little over one one hundredth of one percent of gun owners being evil/bad/criminals, it is actually only one ten thousandths of one percent of gun owners being evil/bad/criminals.

  6. #6
    Moderator / Administrator Grapeshot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HyDef View Post
    Your math is a little off. 9000 divided by 80 million is actually .00011%. That's actually a really big difference from .011%. So, instead of a little over one one hundredth of one percent of gun owners being evil/bad/criminals, it is actually only one ten thousandths of one percent of gun owners being evil/bad/criminals.
    His math was correct. Percentage expresses how many parts per 100.

    The resultant answer is expressed as a decimal value. When that is converted to a percentage, the decimal is moved 2 places to the right.

    9000/80,000,000 = .0001125 or .011%
    You will not rise to the occasion; you will fall back on your level of training.” Archilochus, 650 BC

    Old and treacherous will beat young and skilled every time. Yata hey.

  7. #7
    Regular Member MKEgal's Avatar
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    9000 divided by 80 million is actually .00011%.
    That's actually a really big difference from .011%.
    9000 / 80,000,000 = 0.000112 x 100 = 0.0112% (for simplicity, one one-hundredth of one percent)
    Or am I misremembering that you have to multiply by 100 to get %?
    I think that's where your difference lies.
    [ETA: Grapeshot beat me to it, while I was calculating the below]

    Either way, it's an infinitessimal number.
    (Yeah, yeah, there are 2 orders of magnitude of difference. But even 1/100 of 1% is small enough that I'd be tempted to call it zero for all practical purposes, discussing the rate of crime among legal gun owners.)

    Looking at just incarcerated people in the US... from NYTimes.com
    The United States has, for instance, 2.3 million criminals behind bars
    So if we go to the other extreme & assume that there are at least as many criminals in society as there are locked up (it's probably at least several times that, but no way to tell), and that each homicide was a crime committed by a different criminal

    9000 / 4,600,000 = 0.1957%
    That's 17.5x the other rate.
    Last edited by MKEgal; 04-18-2013 at 11:17 PM.

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    Great post, I have one tiny edit before this would be totally ready for prime time. ...the five most popular center fire rifle cartridges...

    otherwise you can't skip the 22 long rifle, which I believe is in fact the most popular rifle cartridge in the country.

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