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Thread: Is war really disappearing? A new analysis suggests not.

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    Is war really disappearing? A new analysis suggests not.

    "With countries being smaller, weaker and more distant from each other, they certainly have less ability to fight. But we as humans shouldn't get credit for being more peaceful just because we're not as able fight as we once were," he said. "There is no indication that we actually have less proclivity to wage war."
    http://phys.org/news/2013-08-war-analysis.html

    War and Peace

    My substantive research in international relations focuses mostly on the causes of war and peace. My current research focuses on the question of whether, as other scholars have argued, interstate war is becoming more rare or even disappearing. Looking at systematic evidence on international uses of force, I find no support for this claim.
    http://www.braumoeller.info/?page_id=79

    http://www.braumoeller.info/wp-conte...sappearing.pdf
    I am responsible for my writing, not your understanding of it.

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    Regular Member JustaShooter's Avatar
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    With countries being smaller, weaker and more distant from each other, they certainly have less ability to fight
    What kind of clap-trap is that? Countries aren't getting smaller or more distant from each other - if anything, technology brings them closer together (figuratively). Technology also makes them stronger, not weaker. Good night, if this is what passes for critical thinking and analysis / research these days we really are heading for hell in a hand basket!
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    Regular Member liberty404's Avatar
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    Not likely

    War depends on bad ideas, including the wish to exert control over others. Bad ideas and power-lust require irrational thinking. War is not going to become less frequent in the long run unless we eliminate irrational thinking.

    In the short run, technological innovations such as nuclear weapons make it more difficult for leaders to see a way to launch a war and gain more than they loose. In the longer run, someone will develop a method, or persuade themselves that they have developed a method, to gain more than they loose in a war that includes the use of nukes.

    The 20th century saw fewer combat deaths as a percent of population than recent previous centuries. It is not prudent to generalize from the 20th to a rule about the future. Part of the complexity is that "gain" is defined by the initiating leadership - who often have objectives that we do not believe sensible.

    Intellectuals that claim war soon will be obsolete crop up every century or two. It's always just around the corner, or the next corner, or the one after that.

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    Sadly, I must agree that "war" - as we once knew it - is disappearing. Nation-states are not declaring open conflict against other nation-states. And they are not engaging varying coalitions and alliances of other nation-states to join them in open conflict.

    Instead, we are seeing nation-states engaging the services of idealogues to carry out unconventional/nontraditional/asymetric/5th-generation conflict against other nation-states. Even the second- and third-tier nuclear states are unwilling to risk out-and-out nuk-you-lar conflict, regardless of how intense the differences of opinion between them. (See India/Pakistan, France/anybody, Russia/China or Russia/Us or US/China.) Besides the radioactive winds, who really will care if outsourced IT centers are crisped or not? Nobody sees any benefit of holding European territory for any reason. The Chinese may be able to raise sufficient manpower and provide them with small arms, but transporting them across Siberia is going to be difficult, and the *-astans will pick them apart for sport if not for cultural or economic reasons. The Mongols will not try swimming the Pacific and neither they nor the Russians can sustain a supply train from Bejing or Moscow to Debuque. It's been a while since we had a crazy man in the White House willing to push the button before someone else pushes theirs first. Only the Norks are that crazy, but everybody seems to be trying their hardest to make sure they never get the wherewithall to actually do it. Same with Iran, but they are not quite as crazy because they have an economic interest in not being turned into molten glass.

    So - are the radicals and fundamentalists actually hired by nation-states or just tolerated/financed/equipped by nation-states? Does it matter? If they succeed in toppling the US they will then turn on either Russia (most likely) or China next, and then continue to spread the Dark Ages across the globe because there really is only one way to stop them/prevent them from prevailing and everybody is presently afraid to say what that way is.

    So - war is disappearing/has disappeared. Which is a shame, because once you whooped someone's ass you could either strip their resources bare or turn them into playgrounds for excess population if you had such. Unless you are the USA, in which case you are going to bring democracy to every mud hut/cave dweller whether they want it or not and in spite of the fact that democracy is four syllables while mob rule is only two.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JustaShooter View Post
    What kind of clap-trap is that? Countries aren't getting smaller or more distant from each other - if anything, technology brings them closer together (figuratively). Technology also makes them stronger, not weaker. Good night, if this is what passes for critical thinking and analysis / research these days we really are heading for hell in a hand basket!
    Really.

    The premise being Bravo Sierra means that the conclusion likely is also.

    The European/North American countries are no longer waging major war against each other, so war is far less impactful in our lives than it was 1945 and earlier. That creates the perception of less war. Within that sphere, that perception is reality. Outside that sphere, the matter is more arguable.

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