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Thread: Anti-Gunners trying to cause fear again.

  1. #1
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    Anti-Gunners trying to cause fear again.

    http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/0...tcmp=obnetwork

    Just came across this and had to laugh, from what I gather from it I have a six fold increase since I own two guns....Lol.

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    Here is the paper. Note that it is a meta-analysis systematic review, no new data

    http://annals.org/data/Journals/AIM/...1210-00006.pdf

    Check out the Annals' illustration for their article for the evident bias.
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    Bogus "study."

    "Weapons that are stored unloaded and outside of the household seem to pose the lowest risk of suicide and homicide," they wrote. "As such avenues must be made available to promote this option, thereby focusing on the safety of the household and all members of the household."
    Well, there ya go. Have your local LEA store your firearm for you, and they can bring it with them, to your home, so that you can defend yourself.

    The flip side is not addressed because they were not attempting to address the reality of a firearm in the home preserving life. They will not subvert their agenda. Their agenda only needed some pliable statistics to validate their limited view of the world.

    If those nitwits were my kids, I'd be demanding my money back from their respective "institutions of higher learning."

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    No. Fourteen bogus studies mashed-up.

    The authors are PhD, MA and MD, not likely learned on the private dime, but on the taxpayer's dime, and not "your money." Roughly zero postgraduate degrees are personally/privately funded.
    Last edited by Nightmare; 01-21-2014 at 04:04 PM.
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    How about this?.....garbage in garbage out.

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    Like I should give a poop how and why someone decides to end their life. Japan has a higher suicide rate than us, yet they are not allowed guns. Hmmmmmmm?
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkingWolf View Post
    Like I should give a poop how and why someone decides to end their life. Japan has a higher suicide rate than us, yet they are not allowed guns. Hmmmmmmm?
    The United States ranks thirty-third (33) of WHO's 110 nations. I'm sure that some of those (110-33=) 77 nations with lower suicide rates than US are not allowed guns either, a poor correlation. Japan has a very different cultural attitude towards suicide, one that we might benefit from, particularly some less than useful members here and in Washington D.C.

    http://www.who.int/mental_health/pre...cide_rates/en/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_suicide_rate
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    "from what I gather from it I have a six fold increase since I own two guns"

    i'm doomed...

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    You are doomed only if you use two guns at the same time.

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    ok, cool. i feel better now...

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    How do graduates pay for doctoral education?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nightmare View Post
    No. Fourteen bogus studies mashed-up. The authors are PhD, MA and MD, not likely learned on the private dime, but on the taxpayer's dime, and not "your money." Roughly zero postgraduate degrees are personally/privately funded.
    Sources of financial support: Overview

    Research assistantships as well as fellowships or grants are the most important sources of financial support for a growing proportion of doctoral students. Compared with years past, fewer doctoral students now rely primarily on their own resources—loans, personal savings, personal earnings, and the earnings or savings of their spouse, partner, or family—to finance their doctoral studies.

    http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/sed/di...2/theme4.cfm#1
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    Accomplished Advocate color of law's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nightmare View Post
    The United States ranks thirty-third (33) of WHO's 110 nations. I'm sure that some of those (110-33=) 77 nations with lower suicide rates than US are not allowed guns either, a poor correlation. Japan has a very different cultural attitude towards suicide, one that we might benefit from, particularly some less than useful members here and in Washington D.C.

    http://www.who.int/mental_health/pre...cide_rates/en/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_suicide_rate
    United Nations' figures!!!!! Give me a break.

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    Quote Originally Posted by color of law View Post
    United Nations' figures!!!!! Give me a break.
    What source would you prefer?

    The universal problem with large databases is that they are either derived from a purpose built collection protocol, susceptible to bias, or they are derived from convenient data not controlled by the surveyor but neither precisely on point.
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    I have a great bunch of guns.......I must have dies years ago.
    "Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself. They are the people's liberty teeth (and) keystone... the rifle and the pistol are equally indispensable... more than 99% of them by their silence indicate that they are in safe and sane hands. The very atmosphere of firearms everywhere restrains evil interference .When firearms go, all goes, we need them every hour." -- George Washington

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    Devil in the details, as usual

    I heard an in-depth discussion on the radio about this study last week. The author being interviewed was much less hysterical than the media coverage. Like any study, it's important to take a close look at where their data is coming from. Once you know that, a lot of the conclusions won't be surprising.

    In this case, they were looking at successful suicides. The key finding is that suicide is often an impulsive act. If your method is slow-acting, it gives time to reconsider, or for others to intervene, making it less likely to succeed. If your method travels at about 1000 ft/sec, not so much. This is common sense. "'The lethality of the weapons drives the increased risk of suicide and homicide completion,' they wrote. 'Firearms have very high case fatality rates, particularly in the case of suicide. Guns leave very little room for reconsideration of the choice to end a life.'" In other words, people who attempt suicide with a gun succeed more often than those who try other methods. Voila, we arrive at the conclusion that just having a gun increases your risk of [successful] suicide. This is arguably true, although it ignores a lot of other relevant issues. It's a logical extension that anything that would slow a person down would give more opportunity for reconsideration or intervention; having guns locked up and unloaded would definitely slow the person down. They weren't advocating that weapons not be stored in the home, they were just pointing out the logical connection.

    The conclusions of this study aren't newsworthy in and of themselves, but they're vague enough that the antis can take it and run with it, making all sorts of assertions well beyond what the study's authors may have intended. The headline of the linked article ("Gun ownership tied to three-fold increase in suicide risk") is a great example of this; it's a hyped-up oversimplification. It makes it sound like guns somehow radiate evil that convinces people to commit suicide, but that's not at all what the study reported.

    Also from the article: "Anglemyer's team also found about a two-fold increased risk of death from murder among people who had access to a gun, compared to those without access to firearms. For women, the increased risk of being killed was even higher." (emphasis added) Ask yourself, what sort of women might disproportionately possess a gun? Answer: women in danger (from abusive exes or stalkers, living in high-crime areas, working high-risk jobs, etc.) Did the studies consider this? Probably not. Would it affect the results? Probably, but we can't know if it wasn't in the study. Catch-22.

    Like so many studies, the danger isn't from the study itself, it's what ideologues and ignorant policymakers might do with it.
    Guns don't kill people. Drivers on cell phones do.

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    Based on your next to the last paragraph, we should also ask, does the increased rate of gun possession cause an increased risk of murder, or does the already existing increased risk of murder, cause and increased rate of gun possession?

    Correlation says nothing about causation. Overly emotional people tend to jump to conclusions regarding causation when they learn of a correlation.

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    If all buildings and parking structures were no more than 12' tall there would be a very very very very very dramatic decrease in deaths from jumping off buildings. The study is crap, everybody knows this, and I suspect that the "owners" of the study know this. It is nothing but a liberal anti-liberty study conducted by three lawyers with a fax machine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
    I heard an in-depth discussion on the radio about this study last week. The author being interviewed was much less hysterical than the media coverage. Like any study, it's important to take a close look at where their data is coming from. Once you know that, a lot of the conclusions won't be surprising.

    In this case, they were looking at successful suicides. The key finding is that suicide is often an impulsive act. If your method is slow-acting, it gives time to reconsider, or for others to intervene, making it less likely to succeed. If your method travels at about 1000 ft/sec, not so much. This is common sense. "'The lethality of the weapons drives the increased risk of suicide and homicide completion,' they wrote. 'Firearms have very high case fatality rates, particularly in the case of suicide. Guns leave very little room for reconsideration of the choice to end a life.'" In other words, people who attempt suicide with a gun succeed more often than those who try other methods. Voila, we arrive at the conclusion that just having a gun increases your risk of [successful] suicide. This is arguably true, although it ignores a lot of other relevant issues. It's a logical extension that anything that would slow a person down would give more opportunity for reconsideration or intervention; having guns locked up and unloaded would definitely slow the person down. They weren't advocating that weapons not be stored in the home, they were just pointing out the logical connection.

    The conclusions of this study aren't newsworthy in and of themselves, but they're vague enough that the antis can take it and run with it, making all sorts of assertions well beyond what the study's authors may have intended. The headline of the linked article ("Gun ownership tied to three-fold increase in suicide risk") is a great example of this; it's a hyped-up oversimplification. It makes it sound like guns somehow radiate evil that convinces people to commit suicide, but that's not at all what the study reported.

    Also from the article: "Anglemyer's team also found about a two-fold increased risk of death from murder among people who had access to a gun, compared to those without access to firearms. For women, the increased risk of being killed was even higher." (emphasis added) Ask yourself, what sort of women might disproportionately possess a gun? Answer: women in danger (from abusive exes or stalkers, living in high-crime areas, working high-risk jobs, etc.) Did the studies consider this? Probably not. Would it affect the results? Probably, but we can't know if it wasn't in the study. Catch-22.

    Like so many studies, the danger isn't from the study itself, it's what ideologues and ignorant policymakers might do with it.
    Very nicely summarized, Eeyore! As a mental health professional, I have been following this issue for several years and your analysis is spot-on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eye95 View Post
    Based on your next to the last paragraph, we should also ask, does the increased rate of gun possession cause an increased risk of murder, or does the already existing increased risk of murder, cause and increased rate of gun possession?

    Correlation says nothing about causation. Overly emotional people tend to jump to conclusions regarding causation when they learn of a correlation.
    This issue has been studied and it is pretty clear that people with lifestyles which put them at risk of being murdered almost universally own firearms whereas firearm ownership in the population at large is a minority. When you compare like-to-like populations (i.e., white middle-class gun owners with white middle-class non-gun owners, or even inner city gun-owning gangbangers with inner city non-gun-owning gangbangers), the difference disappears.

  20. #20
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    it's hard to figure out what they mean. do they mean if you are a happy person you will suddenly get depressed and want to kill yourself. or are they saying if you are depress and will kill yourself any way you can find . you are more successful if you have a gun?

    suicide Darwinism in action
    Luke 22:36 ; 36Then said he unto them, But now, he that hath a purse, let him take it, and likewise his scrip: and he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one.

    "guns are like a Parachute, if you don't have one when you need it, you will not need one again"
    - unknown

    i you call a CHP a CCW then you are really stupid. period.

  21. #21
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    a critical review of the original work,

    it is interesting to note in this Meta analysis study the researchers started with 6.9K references and after removing 2.9K duplicates and 2.8K ‘clearly irrelevant references’ (no reference what constituted irrelevant), the researchers then closely reviewed 3.4K of ‘titles and abstracts’ (not the actual body of work) then selected 70 articles for full text review and then picked 15 observational studies which met their inclusion criteria. (pg 102)

    The researcher’s review showed: “All but 1 of the 15 studies identified…reported significantly increased odds of death associated with firearm access.” (pg 105)

    I am more concerned the researchers claim: “Furthermore, the National Research Council has acknowledged the difficulty in establishing firearm ownership in studies because of privacy and questionable legality concerns (28). As such, it recommended that researchers receive adequate access to data to trace firearms (28).” (pg 109).

    not sure i believe researchers should be granted the ability to access data to trace firearm ownership.

    a further comment regarding the studies they reviewed...some date back >15 years.

    and eeyore, i am not sure how the article you referenced leap to some of their conclusions off the main research document.

    ipse
    Last edited by solus; 01-30-2014 at 09:58 PM.
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