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Thread: Andy's 'Condolences'

  1. #1
    Regular Member Repeater's Avatar
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    Andy's 'Condolences'

    All of that for $700K?

    Really?

    Condolences

  2. #2
    Campaign Veteran skidmark's Avatar
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    Bloomberg is dropping $700K on the senate contests in order to reduce the 2-member majority the R's currently have.

    http://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Stat...lections,_2015

    These are supposed to be the key/swing seats

    Key races
    The following table details the key races in the general election for the Virginia State Senate and the 2011 margin of victory.
    [hide]2015 Races to Watch, Virginia State Senate
    District Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Candidate 3 Candidate 4 Margin of Victory (2011) MOV (2014 special election)
    District 01 John Miller (D) Mark Matney (R) D+3.62 -
    District 06 Lynwood Lewis (D) Richard Ottinger (R) D+13.63 D+0.04
    District 07 Gary McCollum (D) Frank Wagner (R) R+100 -
    District 10 Dan Gecker (D) Glen Sturtevant (R) Marleen Durfee (I) Carl Loser (L) R+13.18 -
    District 17 Ned Gallaway (D) Bryce Reeves (R) R+0.50 -
    District 20 Kim Adkins (D) Bill Stanley (R) R+1.26 -
    District 21 John Edwards (D) Nancy Dye (R) Donald Caldwell (I) D+11.93 -
    District 29 Jeremy McPike (D) Hal Parrish (R) D+10.27 -
    (Bold=Incumbent)
    District 1: In this district, incumbent John Miller (D) will face DUI attorney Mark Matney (R) in the general election.[11] Miller was re-elected with a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2011 and was elected to the chamber with a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2007.[9] As of August 31, 2015, Miller had $111,583 in cash on hand, while Matney only had $1,823.[12]
    District 6: Incumbent Lynwood Lewis (D) will face challenger Richard Ottinger (R) in the general election. Lewis won this seat last January in a special election by only 11 votes.[2] Before joining the state Senate, Lewis served in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2004 to January 2014. In this Democratic-leaning seat, Lewis led Ottinger $177,814 to $33,909 in cash on hand as of August 31, 2015.[12]
    District 7: Incumbent Frank Wagner (R) and Gary McCollum (D) will face off in the general election. McCollum is a Cox Communications executive, minister and former Army Ranger. McCollum is the first challenger to face Wagner in a general election since he was first elected to the chamber in 2003.[2] Campaign finance reports showed that he raised $250,000 from January to March, while Wagner raised $90,000. Wagner was not allowed to fundraise during the 45-day legislative session.[13] As of August 31, 2015, Wagner had a cash-on-hand advantage of $521,748 to $471,960 against McCollum.[12]
    District 10: In this open seat, Dan Gecker (D), Glen Sturtevant (R), Marleen Durfee (I) and Carl Loser (L) will face off in the general election. Incumbent John Watkins (R), who has represented the district since 1998, is not running for re-election. Democrats are hoping to capture this seat, where they have won every statewide election in the district since 2012.[13] In August 2015, Sturtevant had $40,122 in cash on hand, while Gecker had $151,907.[12][14]
    District 17: Incumbent Bryce Reeves (R) will face Albemarle County School Board chairman Ned Gallaway (D) in the general election.[15] In 2011, Reeves defeated incumbent R. Edward "Edd" Houck (D) by a margin of victory of 0.50 percent or by only 226 votes.[9] According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of August 31, 2015, Reeves had a cash-on-hand advantage of $564,022 to $18,711.[12]
    Candidate ballot access
    Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg
    Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.
    District 20: Incumbent Bill Stanley (R) and former Martinsville mayor Kim Adkins (D) will face off in the general election.[16] Stanley defeated incumbent Roscoe Reynolds (D) in 2011 by a margin of victory of 1.26 percent or by 644 votes.[9] As of August 31 2015, Stanley held a cash-on-hand advantage against Adkins of $154,223 to $31,577.[12]
    District 21: Incumbent John Edwards (D), Nancy Dye (R) and Donald Caldwell (I) will face off in the general election. Caldwell, a long-time Democrat, is the longest serving commonwealth’s attorney in Roanoke.[17] Bob Denton, a political analyst and head of Virginia Tech’s communications department, said that Caldwell's candidacy can boost Dye's campaign and provide the GOP with a potential upset.[17] According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dye had $104,194 in cash on hand and Edwards had $92,383, as of May 27.[17] Edwards was re-elected in 2011 with a margin of victory of 11.93 percent.[9] In August 2015, Edwards led Dye $168,655 to $105,412 in cash on hand.[12] As of September 30, 2015, Dye had $157,479 in cash-on-hand, while Edwards had $138,848 and Caldwell had $35,280.[18]
    District 29: In this open seat, Jeremy McPike (D) and Hal Parrish (R) will face off in the general election. Incumbent Charles Colgan (D), who has represented the district since 1976, is not running for re-election. Colgan was re-elected in 2011 by a margin of victory of 10.27 percent.[9] Parrish has served as the mayor of Manassas since 2009 and on the Manassas City Council since 1993.[17] McPike, the director of general services for the city of Alexandria, lost a close election in 2013 against Del. Scott Lingamfelter (R).[17] McPike lost by only 228 votes. According to August 2015 campaign finance reports, Parrish led McPike $218,197 to $102,775 in cash on hand.[12] As of September 30, 2015, Parrish had $143,078 in cash-on-hand, while McPike had $19,841.[19]
    Sorry about the formatting, but click the link to get it straightened out.

    There are only 3 Districts they need to concentrate on - 6, 17, & 20 and the Ds get the Senate and the Governor. And we are screwed.

    stay safe
    "He'll regret it to his dying day....if ever he lives that long."----The Quiet Man

    Because stupidity isn't a race, and everybody can win.

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  3. #3
    Moderator / Administrator Grapeshot's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skidmark View Post
    Bloomberg is dropping $700K on the senate contests in order to reduce the 2-member majority the R's currently have.

    http://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Stat...lections,_2015

    These are supposed to be the key/swing seats



    Sorry about the formatting, but click the link to get it straightened out.

    There are only 3 Districts they need to concentrate on - 6, 17, & 20 and the Ds get the Senate and the Governor. And we are screwed.

    stay safe
    Separating the good from the bad are less votes than what's for dinner from the pizza parlor on a Saturday night. Failure to vote is just as bad as voting wrong
    You will not rise to the occasion; you will fall back on your level of training.” Archilochus, 650 BC

    Old and treacherous will beat young and skilled every time. Yata hey.

  4. #4
    Regular Member TFred's Avatar
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    District 17, Reeves vs. Gallaway

    I'm not a prophet, but I suspect Reeves is a little safer than the raw numbers might indicate. I sure hope I am right.

    Reeves defeated long-term incumbent Edd Houck by 226 votes last time around, and Houck was one of the most entrenched politicians you will ever see.

    At least in my area, Reeves has not been getting any significant bad press, and seems to be well-liked by reasonable people (that is, everyone other than the die-hard liberals.)

    ETA: Also, I've heard NOTHING from Gallaway, other than the sparse yard signs and bumper stickers.

    Are there any polls that measure these State Senate campaigns?

    TFred
    Last edited by TFred; 10-23-2015 at 04:55 PM.

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