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Thread: Overwhelming Evidence, alluded to here and by our enemies, still fails to convince.

  1. #1
    Regular Member
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    Feb 2013
    Thru Death's Door in Wisconsin

    Overwhelming Evidence, alluded to here and by our enemies, still fails to convince.

    Reading in an entirely different field, I came across overwhelming-evidence and its complications. I recall its frequent citation here, today even an unbalanced list mentioned of good-to-excellent as though the bad and the ugly are ineffective and moot.

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    Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince submitted 5 January 2016
    Abstract: Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true?

    The assumption of independence is often made in good faith, however rarely is consideration given to whether a systemic failure has occurred.

    Taking this into account can cause certainty in a hypothesis to decrease as the evidence for it becomes apparently stronger. We perform a probabilistic Bayesian analysis of this effect with examples based on (i) archaeological evidence, (ii) weighing of legal evidence, and (iii) cryptographic primality testing.

    We find that even with surprisingly low systemic failure rates high confidence is very difficult to achieve and in particular we find that certain analyses of cryptographically-important numerical tests are highly optimistic, underestimating their false-negative rate by as much as a factor of 2^80. [formatted for readability]

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    Last edited by Nightmare; 01-13-2016 at 08:23 AM. Reason: reformatted for the hard of reading
    I am responsible for my writing, not your understanding of it.

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