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Thread: Officer’s ‘one in a billion’ shot down barrel of suspect’s weapon ended robbery

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    Officer’s ‘one in a billion’ shot down barrel of suspect’s weapon ended robbery

    “It was determined that one of the shots that Deputy Marquez fired from his .45 caliber handgun actually hit Meshesha’s .40 caliber handgun and traveled down the barrel, colliding with a cartridge that was in the chamber of the gun,” the prosecutor wrote.
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...illion-shot-d/
    Last edited by Nightmare; 07-15-2016 at 02:06 PM.
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    Moderator / Administrator Grapeshot's Avatar
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    I would say he was focused, very focused, on the spot from which the danger was emitting.
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    A little more precise mathematical equation. Rest of the math at the link

    http://gunwatch.blogspot.com/2016/07...uarter-of.html


    An extraordinary shot from a Colorado gunfight is being described as a "one in a billion" shot. The shot is extraordinary, but the odds are much better than a billion to one. It is fairly common for people in a gun fight to get hit in the gun arm or gun hand, or for their firearm to be hit. The gun is usually out front, facing the person who they are firing at and or who is fireing at them. People tend to equate the gun with the threat, so they focus on the gun hand. Where the eyes look, the bullets tend to go. From denverpost.com:
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    Campaign Veteran since9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firearms Iinstuctor View Post
    A little more precise mathematical equation. Rest of the math at the link

    http://gunwatch.blogspot.com/2016/07...uarter-of.html


    An extraordinary shot from a Colorado gunfight is being described as a "one in a billion" shot. The shot is extraordinary, but the odds are much better than a billion to one. It is fairly common for people in a gun fight to get hit in the gun arm or gun hand, or for their firearm to be hit. The gun is usually out front, facing the person who they are firing at and or who is fireing at them. People tend to equate the gun with the threat, so they focus on the gun hand. Where the eyes look, the bullets tend to go. From denverpost.com:
    The author at the linked states, "So the odds of the shot are about a quarter million to one. If you are in the top 1%, those odds drop to about 15,000 to one."

    My back-of-napkin approach is similar, and produced similar results. Specifically:

    Let's say two people of reasonable skill, both armed with a .45 are pointing a loaded weapon at one another. Person A shoots at Person B. What are the odds that Person A's bullet goes down the barrel of Person B's firearm?

    There's three inputs to this:

    1. Reasonable Target Area. This is the area of the target i.e. "center body mass" the shooter could reasonably hit under the circumstances. The hip pocket figure I used was two feet vertical and a foot horizontal. That's 24"x12", or 288 square inches. Please note this is not the same dimensions as the 6" diameter Incapacitation Zone (IZ) centered around nose, or the 10" diameter Lethal Zone (LZ) centered around the heart. Not is it any one of dozens of other target dimensions. It's merely the entire target area in which it's likely for the other shooter to be holding his firearm in a direction pointed at the other shooter.

    2. Reasonable Proficiency Level. Let's say the shooter is an "expert," but not "perfect." There, it's a reasonable assumption that they would hit this target 85% of the time.

    3. Reasonable Bullet Offset. If the bullet impacts the barrel of the other person's gun exactly half a diameter offset, it will be cut in two on the barrel's edge. If it's less than one-third of the barrel's diameter offset, however, or less, it's likely majority of the mass of the bullet will continue down the barrel of the other person's gun. Again, this is a hip-pocket assessment, but I think it's reasonably in the ball park. Therefore, the tip of the bullet must strike within an area with a diameter of just 0.15 inches. Using pi*r2, where r=d/2, this yields an area of 0.0176715 square inches.

    Running these all together, and assuming that the opponent's firearm has an equal chance of being anywhere within the 24"x12" target, the odds are 1 in 19,173.

    That's in the same ball park as the author's "1 in 15,000" for an "expert," but is well off his "1 in a quarter million" for an average shooter.

    Thus, I have no confidence in his statement, "So the odds of the shot are about a quarter million to one," and I disagree that the situation requires one to be "in the top 1%" for "those odds (to) drop to about 15,000 to one."

    Obviously, the "billion to one" figure is about 50,000 times great than reality.
    Last edited by since9; 07-18-2016 at 04:55 AM.
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    Regular Member 1245A Defender's Avatar
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    Well,,,

    1 big thing to ruin all that math,,, Im not aiming at his gun!
    fact is, your gun is not really near your center mass.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1245A Defender View Post
    1 big thing to ruin all that math,,, Im not aiming at his gun!
    fact is, your gun is not really near your center mass.
    All depends upon one's stance. Is the target bladed off at an angle or facing directly towards you with a 2 hand grip. But even this with arms extended forward and gun sights level with eyes has the firearm at the upper reach of COM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by since9 View Post
    0.0176715 square inches. Running these all together, and assuming that ...
    ... Magic occurs, then ...

    LOL. Seven decimal places of accuracy from a run-on assumption.
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    There instances of battle field bullets being found fused together (as in having collided mid-flight).

    http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2...lided-mid-air/

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    There have been many instances of innocents killed by un-aimed bullets with vanishingly small probability of being true.
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