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Thread: BCPVG running Monte Carlo mayhem-modeling program?

  1. #1
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    http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20070...3433-8897r.htm

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said he will await the findings of a panel studying the Virginia Tech shootings before considering whether to allow people with gun permits to carry firearms on college campuses.
    In response to a caller to his monthly question-and-answer radio show on WRVA Radio (AM 1140) in Richmond and the Virginia News Network, Mr. Kaine voiced little enthusiasm for the idea. Whether to allow people who hold concealed-carry permits to bring weapons onto campuses is left to presidents of state-supported colleges and universities. Mr. Kaine said he does not wish to meddle in those matters.
    "The question about on-campus gun policies -- some say we've got to do more gun laws and some say the right way to provide security to campuses is let students carry concealed weapons -- I'm going to wait and see if the panel makes a recommendation about that," Mr. Kaine said. "I've been asked my opinion about it and what I've said is this: the college presidents and campus police chiefs that I've talked to have generally felt like allowing more students to carry concealed weapons would be a bad thing rather than a good thing. I'm not in the business of campus security. I'm not an expert at that," he said.
    Legislation that would force universities to allow concealed-carry permit holders to bring guns on campus has consistently drawn opposition from college administrators, Mr. Kaine noted. The eight-member review panel headed by former state police Superintendent W. Gerald Massengill has met twice, has at least two more meetings scheduled and is due to report its findings to Mr. Kaine by August.
    After a mentally ill student killed himself after fatally shooting 32 students and faculty on April 16, gun rights advocates have argued that allowing people to carry concealed weapons could have reduced the carnage. Seung-hui Cho, armed with two handguns, fired 174 times in nine minutes on the second floor of Norris Hall on the Blacksburg, Va., campus. Cho shot himself as police broke through exits that he had chained and locked, but he had 203 rounds of live ammunition left and was prepared to keep on killing, police told the panel.
    Philip Van Cleave, president of the pro-gun Virginia Citizens Defense League, said he was glad Mr. Kaine didn't flatly reject the prospect of guns on campus.
    "We're glad there has been no rush to judgment to block out what we think is the ultimate solution to this," he said.
    Within hours of the shootings, Mr. Van Cleave's organization called for allowing concealed weapons on campus, arguing Cho's rampage might have been curtailed had he encountered armed resistance.
    "We'll never know for sure, but there was an excellent chance of stopping it," he said yesterday.
    The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence contends that having armed students at Norris Hall probably would have only made matters worse by putting unarmed students in a crossfire with Cho.
    "You can run the same scenarios 150,000 times, and maybe a few of those times you end up with fewer casualties," said Peter Hamm, the Washington-based gun-control group's spokesman. "By all means, we can talk about more guns in classrooms as an option, but by the same token, we think it's a bad idea," he said.
    BCPVG says talking is a bad idea but does it anyway.

    Earlier a heavy poster here was cautioning about ignorant use of statistics. The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense.

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    I'd say regardless of the fact, at least the students would at least have a fighting chance... oh, and b.s. considering tactically, the armed student(s) would be controlling the choke points of entry to each classroom, it's not like it was a crowded mall, it was 10-20 kids in a classroom and one mass murderer in the front or by the entrance.
    -Unrequited

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    Doug Huffman wrote:
    http://www.washtimes.com/metro/20070...3433-8897r.htm

    The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence contends that having armed students at Norris Hall probably would have only made matters worse by putting unarmed students in a crossfire with Cho.
    "You can run the same scenarios 150,000 times, and maybe a few of those times you end up with fewer casualties," said Peter Hamm, the Washington-based gun-control group's spokesman. "By all means, we can talk about more guns in classrooms as an option, but by the same token, we think it's a bad idea," he said.
    BCPVG says talking is a bad idea but does it anyway.

    Earlier a heavy poster here was cautioning about ignorant use of statistics. The conspiracy of ignorance masquerades as common sense.

    Nothing wrong with talking. Only the extremists and dullards on both sides don't like talking. Might upset the worldview.

    On the issue of "ignorant use ofstatistics" one of the most obviously poor use of statistics is the blanket rejection method. People who do not know orunderstand statistics/quantitative methodologies often resort to that position. Pity, since the real decision-makers in BIG problems almost always rely heavily on stats/quant analysis for their decisions.

    In this case, simply terming the Monte Carlo simulation-based study by saying it is "ignorant use of statistics" is not even a rebuttal. A betterl, much better approach would be to analyze thevariables used, assumptions,and the research design. That particular quant research method is wellaccepted in all fields of research. But a lot of times the research will 'cook the books' eitherinadvertantly (usually) orintentionally (much less often) to influence theresults and findings.

    Would have to look at thestudy design to know for sure.


    P.S I really like the political smoothness of the PVC quote/point. It was just a blurb but it just sounded very well crafted.

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    Is that you Phaedrus?

    Interesting link here that mentions "extremists and dullards" and "partisanship" in the same post. Most people will unconsciously use repetitive patterns in both speech and writing and certain phrases will obviously stand out and be used in more than one place. I know I do just thaton many forums I frequent.

    Very interesting.... Provocative, no?

    http://nofearoffreedom.blogspot.com/...so-tiring.html




  5. #5
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    BobCav wrote:
    Is that you Phaedrus?

    Interesting link here that mentions "extremists and dullards" and "partisanship" in the same post. Most people will unconsciously use repetitive patterns in both speech and writing and certain phrases will obviously stand out and be used in more than one place. I know I do just thaton many forums I frequent.

    Very interesting.... Provocative, no?

    http://nofearoffreedom.blogspot.com/...so-tiring.html


    AHEM!!!

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    According to Google, it's a pretty unique phrase. Only four hits.

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    BobCav wrote:
    BobCav wrote:
    Is that you Phaedrus?

    Interesting link here that mentions "extremists and dullards" and "partisanship" in the same post. Most people will unconsciously use repetitive patterns in both speech and writing and certain phrases will obviously stand out and be used in more than one place. I know I do just thaton many forums I frequent.

    Very interesting.... Provocative, no?

    http://nofearoffreedom.blogspot.com/...so-tiring.html
    AHEM!!!
    Joachim: "They're requesting communications, sir."

    Khan: "Let them eat static."



  8. #8
    State Researcher HankT's Avatar
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    ET wrote:
    According to Google, it's a pretty unique phrase. Only four hits.
    I wonder what that could mean?

    Any thoughts, ET?



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    So I don't have to read through a bunch of threads, can someone fill me in on the facts behind the allegations against HankT. I can't personally recall a statement that clearly and irrefutably makes him at odds with the us. Certainly nothing in the class of commentary I dug up against a certain poster awhile back.
    I'll make you an offer: I will argue and fight for all of your rights, if you will do the same for me. That is the only way freedom can work. We have to respect all rights, all the time--and strive to win the rights of the other guy as much as for ourselves.

    If I am equal to another, how can I legitimately govern him without his express individual consent?

    There is no human being on earth I hate so much I would actually vote to inflict government upon him.

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    BobCav wrote:
    Is that you Phaedrus?

    Interesting link here that mentions "extremists and dullards" and "partisanship" in the same post. Most people will unconsciously use repetitive patterns in both speech and writing and certain phrases will obviously stand out and be used in more than one place. I know I do just thaton many forums I frequent.

    Very interesting.... Provocative, no?

    http://nofearoffreedom.blogspot.com/...so-tiring.html



    AHEM!!!

  11. #11
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    BobCav wrote:
    BobCav wrote:
    Is that you Phaedrus?

    Interesting link here that mentions "extremists and dullards" and "partisanship" in the same post. Most people will unconsciously use repetitive patterns in both speech and writing and certain phrases will obviously stand out and be used in more than one place. I know I do just thaton many forums I frequent.

    Very interesting.... Provocative, no?

    http://nofearoffreedom.blogspot.com/...so-tiring.html
    AHEM!!!
    No, I am not the Phaedrus in your link, BobCav. But I have no clue as to how it would be useful to you if I were.

    However, I must say that you very much startled me with your firstquestion above since I do hang around sometimes over at http://www.moq.org/.

    I am not that Phaedrus either, thank God. Though I respected him very much.

    Try again.

  12. #12
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    Perfect!! Oneof my favorite quotes:

    "The place to improve the world is first in one's own heart and head and hands."



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