View Poll Results: What do you do?

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  • I think for a moment. This is not IPSC. Everybody is so close...

    16 8.47%
  • I look at the guy's gun--it looks real.

    19 10.05%
  • I check for other BGs.

    37 19.58%
  • The bad guy has not noticed my gun, I reach for it.

    20 10.58%
  • I think the guy is bluffing, I pull my piece, aim and shoot--all in one motion.

    13 6.88%
  • I assimilate the situation--not good. I conclude the girl dies if I draw/shoot.

    22 11.64%
  • The number 5 comes to mind instantly--the number of children there.

    11 5.82%
  • I offer him some wine.

    9 4.76%
  • I neutralize the threat immediately.

    23 12.17%
  • I freeze. I make no sudden move.

    19 10.05%
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Thread: Scenario: What would you do?

  1. #1
    State Researcher HankT's Avatar
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    ***You can selectmultiple answers in this poll***



    You're OCing at a privateresidence...a party. You've been there for an hour and have been visiting with family and some of their friends.Everything is fine.You're on the back patio enjoying conversation, good eats and good cheer. You have your SIG 229 in a Serpa hoster on your right hip. You have 1 spare mag on your weak side. The kids have finally stopped asking you about the gun.

    There are children and adults at the party. Your uncle is there with his wife. A couple of nephews under 10 years old. Some friends of your uncle are there, a professional couple, he a financial analyst, she a librarian. You notice some other kids there, including a 14 year old girl with long curly hair. That's Caroline. She's a sophomore at a close-by public high school. She wears wire rim glasses and she is very polite. She is a daughter of one of your uncle's friends.

    Good vittles! Cheese, wine (Château Malescot St.-Exupéry--a bit too light, but quite resonant), crackers, canapes, the works. It was catered. It's late afternoon. Plenty of daylight left...

    You're facing the back of the house, away from the backyard fence, talking to the librarian when you hear the scream...

    Ahooded man had slid in through an open gate and put the barrel of a handgun (Glock! Maybe a 23. Or 19.) to the head of Caroline. She is red-eyed and shrieking, holding her hands up to her head.The women and other kids start yelling. You turn around and hear the guy say, "Give me your money, or I'll start shooting!"

    What do you do?

    ***You can selectmultiple answers in this poll***

  2. #2
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    I want a choice somewhere along the lines of I want to keep my gun side in the other direction and wait for him to compromise his position first. I would only start shooting when I thought he was about ready to fire or there was more room between the girl and the BG.

  3. #3
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    The big question is "Can he see me clearly or not...and can I get around behind him without being seen. Too many If's for a definitive answer. I definitely wouldn't try to escalate the encointer, unless I had no choice, then all hell breaks loose

  4. #4
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    Impossible to answer without being there.
    If force on force has taught me anything it is that.


  5. #5
    State Researcher HankT's Avatar
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    Pa. Patriot wrote:
    Impossible to answer without being there.
    But not impossible to think about the variables, forces and dynamics of the situation. To think that not thinking about what the scenario can teach you is a poor choice.

    Scenarios are not really about answers. They're about understanding dynamicsand potentialities. And constraints.

  6. #6
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    You posted a poll and asked for answers.

    What do you do?
    ***You can select multiple answers in this poll***
    There are none.

    If you wanted to discuss variables you should have posted a poll about variables.



  7. #7
    State Researcher HankT's Avatar
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    Pa. Patriot wrote:
    You posted a poll and asked for answers.

    What do you do?
    ***You can select multiple answers in this poll***
    There are none.

    If you wanted to discuss variables you should have posted a poll about variables.

    Jes' a method to get some discussion going.

    Real scenario exercises are very extensive. Way too much for an informal forum. People who enter in such exercises, when well done, are pretty much forced to think. Especially of things they ordinarily refuse to think about it.

    They're very difficult to do. Especially when one:

    a) knows all the answers, or

    b) knows there are no answers.

  8. #8
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    My wife and children know the answer to this one (and agree with it). The badguy is going down. Someone holding a gun to a child's head is a threat of the highest order and must be stopped - NOW!

    LoveMyCountry

  9. #9
    State Researcher HankT's Avatar
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    LoveMyCountry wrote:
    My wife and children know the answer to this one (and agree with it). The badguy is going down. Someone holding a gun to a child's head is a threat of the highest order and must be stopped - NOW!
    What if he shoots the kid in the head?

    What if it's not your kid?

  10. #10
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    Don't pick #9, it's a trap!

    Seriously, you try too hard, it's borderline pathetic. You need a new hobby.
    -Unrequited

  11. #11
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    HankT wrote:
    LoveMyCountry wrote:
    My wife and children know the answer to this one (and agree with it). The badguy is going down. Someone holding a gun to a child's head is a threat of the highest order and must be stopped - NOW!
    What if he shoots the kid in the head?

    What if it's not your kid?
    What if it was you, would you want someone to help? Just for argument's sake.

  12. #12
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    HankT wrote:
    LoveMyCountry wrote:
    My wife and children know the answer to this one (and agree with it). The badguy is going down. Someone holding a gun to a child's head is a threat of the highest order and must be stopped - NOW!
    What if he shoots the kid in the head?

    What if* it's not your kid?
    Then he's a child killer who must be stopped. It doesn't matter if it's my child or not. If I am the only one able to do something to stop him, I am the only one to make that decision. How could you not defend the child? Would you let a wild animal keep chewing on a kid just because he was from down the street? If your kids were in the car with you when you saw a child being abducted would you ignore it because your kids were safe?

    The longer you wait, the more power the attacker has over his victims. End the threat NOW!

    LoveMyCountry

  13. #13
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    I would attempt to engage him in conversation about his childhood to see if we could determine the life experiences that have led him down the criminal path. I would then suggest a group hug for all present and wish the robber well as he departs, encouraging him to get the therapy he needs to turn his life around. Why would I do all of this????? To make HankT proud !!!

  14. #14
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    Offer him some wine, of course. No need to go to extremes.

    I don't know. Since there are so many people there, the main reason for killing a victim (no witness, no 911) is eliminated; he can't kill everyone. It's looking like a robbery. Therefore, I would be inclined to keep my eyes open and wait for an opportunity.

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    Armed4Life wrote:
    I would attempt to engage him in conversation about his childhood to see if we could determine the life experiences that have led him down the criminal path. I would then suggest a group hug for all present and wish the robber well as he departs, encouraging him to get the therapy he needs to turn his life around. Why would I do all of this????? To make HankT proud !!!
    That's funny , I saw that "real" news story as well...I think about two or three weeks ago. "Burglar wined, dined, and hugged...then left peacefully...no one injured."

    In this hypothetical case however, the instant someone puts themselves in the position to threaten another's life, then their own well being comes into question.

  16. #16
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    HankT wrote:
    LoveMyCountry wrote:
    My wife and children know the answer to this one (and agree with it). The badguy is going down. Someone holding a gun to a child's head is a threat of the highest order and must be stopped - NOW!
    What if he shoots the kid in the head?

    What if it's not your kid?
    Are you searching for emotional responses like, "Yeah, I'd definitely kill that SOB after he shot a kid" or something along those lines? The scenario started out at least somewhat on the level, but these are silly, immaturequestions seeking replies from which you cantake to wherever you're trying to take this. Your scenario is a crap situation and someone may or may not be injured...maybe you've never experienced someone else injured, in pain,dead, or dying...whatever. Maybe you read too much Internet news...who knows.

    Join your local volunteer fire department, ride along with EMT's for a weekend in a busy city, join the military and carry your butt to a foreign **** hole to gain an understanding of what it means to see people die before you try and draw out someone to statethat itmay be their intent to kill another based on your scenario. Duh, yeah, everyone wants to be the hero and take the head shot that saves the kid...that would make for cool conversation, maybe a made-for-TV movie and possibly satisfy the intent of this thread.

  17. #17
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    Bravo e6t. Bravo.
    -Unrequited

  18. #18
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    You do just what they did in that movie Speed. Shoot the hostage in the leg, duh!!!

  19. #19
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    10, 3, 2 and 6 in that order.

    Sudden moves will likely aggravate the situation.

    Not checking for other BGs is stupid unless your actually being shot at right then.

    If the pistol is obviously a black painted air-soft ora BB gun you have more options. If you can't tell, acting rashly will definately get someone shot or killed.

    If you draw and shoot you had better be faster than the BGs finger and more accurate than a movie cowboy, because the kid will die aand you will have caused it by either making the BG shoot the kid or you shooting her by accident.

    All that being said, IF the BG is alone ( or the other BGs are near the main BG) andIF there was a DEFINATE opening to shoot and IF you have a CLEAR shot and IF no one is near you (no need to introduce innocent bystanders to bullets), take it.

    But, this is just my opinion.



  20. #20
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    Since this situation's variables were left open to interpretation...

    I assume the guy hasn't noticed I'm armed (or he probably would have already shot me), I assume the guy is distracted/looking around at the other guests, I assume the guy has his back to something safe to shoot in the direction of (like a brick wall), etc.

    The brain is an amazing at collecting and analyzing situational information subconsciously. The choice to shoot would be based on this instinctual analysis. When seconds count, it's the best tool you have.

    Part of this "situational information" includes "microexpressions." I read an article on this once in Reader's Digest where they did studies of facial expressions people exhibit for fractions of a second before masking them to hide fear, anger, etc. If you're looking, your brain will pick up on this, and will give you some insight into the person's state of mind and intentions.

    So, with these assumptions and processing occurring, I would say any of your poll "answers" could be correct, depending on the variables not defined in your OP.
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  21. #21
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    CA_Libertarian wrote:
    I assume the guy hasn't noticed I'm armed (or he probably would have already shot me)
    Good assumption for this scenario. (Although it is inconsistent with other arguments that are quite popular in the OC community).




    CA_Libertarian wrote:
    I assume the guy is distracted/looking around at the other guests, I assume the guy has his back to something safe to shoot in the direction of (like a brick wall), etc.
    Sure. Reasonable assumptions. Make it interesting...





    CA_Libertarian wrote:
    The brain is an amazing at collecting and analyzing situational information subconsciously. The choice to shoot would be based on this instinctual analysis. When seconds count, it's the best tool you have.

    Part of this "situational information" includes "microexpressions." I read an article on this once in Reader's Digest where they did studies of facial expressions people exhibit for fractions of a second before masking them to hide fear, anger, etc. If you're looking, your brain will pick up on this, and will give you some insight into the person's state of mind and intentions.
    Very interesting. What're the other parts of the situational information?

    And don't you have to be trained to pick up the microexpressions? And if you were trained, what kind of insight would you get if you picked up, say, "fear?" Or anger? If the guy pointing a gun at Caroline's head is in "fear," or is angry, what does that do for you in handling the tactical situation? Is there a microexpression that would tell you that, say, the guy won't shoot? Or definitely will?



    CA_Libertarian wrote:
    So, with these assumptions and processing occurring, I would say any of your poll "answers" could be correct, depending on the variables not defined in your OP.
    Scenarios and scenario analysis aren't about "correct." They are not quizzes or exams whichare measurement methods. Scenariosare generative in nature. Theymake people think. Especially aboutthingsthey wouldn't ordinarily think about if they did not do the scenario exercise. Lots of insight cancome from scenarios. Often, if designed well, they are uncomfortable to participate in.

    If, after doinga scenario, youhave not changed your mind about something you believed before, it probably wasn't donewell.





  22. #22
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    Check for other BGs. If none, shoot the bad guy even if it costs the hostage her life. Reason: He may pull a .'Cho'. to eliminate any witnesses otherwise.

  23. #23
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    Mini14 wrote:
    Check for other BGs. If none, shoot the bad guy even if it costs the hostage her life. Reason: He may pull a .'Cho'. to eliminate any witnesses otherwise.
    Well, I like your directness. Caroline'slife for the BG's life, right?

    I'm curious. In the scenario described, what would you estimate the probability that the girl with the gun pointed at her head gets shot in the head or elsewhere? (Given no other BGs, and your resulting decision to shoot him. Let's say, just for simplicity, that your accuracy will be 100% in your shooting--you will kill/stop the BG.)

    Would it be 100%, 90%, etc?

    I could see a case being made for the probability that she might not get shot. Say, a quick head shot on the guy or on his spinal cord, rendering him (almost) instantly incapable of pulling the trigger. Something like that.

    What is the probability that the Caroline gets shotin your decision model?

  24. #24
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    I disagee...the BG would have shot the kid--not you. Otherwise, you are putting faith in a BG to *not* exert a couple pounds of pressure. You could do everything the BG wants--he can/will shoot the kid. BG is responsible for his actions--no one else.



    One way or another, BG is going down.

  25. #25
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    SIGguy229 wrote:
    I disagee...the BG would have shot the kid--not you.
    Correct. I think we are all on the same page on that item.

    (It's possible that the defender might actually accidently shoot the child but for simplicity's sake, we're assuming the BG who has the gun pointed at the kid's head is the one who "would have shot the kid.")




    SIGguy229 wrote:
    Otherwise, you are putting faith in a BG to *not* exert a couple pounds of pressure.
    I think it is a given that the BG can pull the trigger.




    SIGguy229 wrote:
    You could do everything the BG wants--he can/will shoot the kid.
    Ummm, is that really true? What if you gave him some wine?

    And cheese?


    SIGguy229 wrote:
    BG is responsible for his actions--no one else.
    Without question.

    But who is responsible for the commencement of shooting?




    SIGguy229 wrote:

    One way or another, BG is going down.
    You would shoot in this case, then? No hesitation...no option?

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