Scenario: What would you do?

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CA_Libertarian wrote:

I assume the guy hasn't noticed I'm armed (or he probably would have already shot me)

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Good assumption for this scenario. (Although it is inconsistent with other arguments that are quite popular in the OC community).




CA_Libertarian wrote:

I assume the guy is distracted/looking around at the other guests, I assume the guy has his back to something safe to shoot in the direction of (like a brick wall), etc.

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Sure. Reasonable assumptions. Make it interesting...





CA_Libertarian wrote:

The brain is an amazing at collecting and analyzing situational information subconsciously. The choice to shoot would be based on this instinctual analysis. When seconds count, it's the best tool you have.

Part of this "situational information" includes "microexpressions." I read an article on this once in Reader's Digest where they did studies of facial expressions people exhibit for fractions of a second before masking them to hide fear, anger, etc. If you're looking, your brain will pick up on this, and will give you some insight into the person's state of mind and intentions.

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Very interesting. What're the other parts of the situational information?

And don't you have to be trained to pick up the microexpressions? And if you were trained, what kind of insight would you get if you picked up, say, "fear?" Or anger? If the guy pointing a gun at Caroline's head is in "fear," or is angry, what does that do for you in handling the tactical situation? Is there a microexpression that would tell you that, say, the guy won't shoot? Or definitely will?



CA_Libertarian wrote:

So, with these assumptions and processing occurring, I would say any of your poll "answers" could be correct, depending on the variables not defined in your OP.

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Scenarios and scenario analysis aren't about "correct." They are not quizzes or exams whichare measurement methods. Scenariosare generative in nature. Theymake people think. Especially aboutthingsthey wouldn't ordinarily think about if they did not do the scenario exercise. Lots of insight cancome from scenarios. Often, if designed well, they are uncomfortable to participate in.

If, after doinga scenario, youhave not changed your mind about something you believed before, it probably wasn't donewell.

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Check for other BGs. If none, shoot the bad guy even if it costs the hostage her life. Reason: He may pull a .'Cho'. to eliminate any witnesses otherwise.

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Mini14 wrote:

Check for other BGs. If none, shoot the bad guy even if it costs the hostage her life. Reason: He may pull a .'Cho'. to eliminate any witnesses otherwise.

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Well, I like your directness. Caroline'slife for the BG's life, right?

I'm curious. In the scenario described, what would you estimate the probability that the girl with the gun pointed at her head gets shot in the head or elsewhere? (Given no other BGs, and your resulting decision to shoot him. Let's say, just for simplicity, that your accuracy will be 100% in your shooting--you will kill/stop the BG.)

Would it be 100%, 90%, etc?

I could see a case being made for the probability that she might not get shot. Say, a quick head shot on the guy or on his spinal cord, rendering him (almost) instantly incapable of pulling the trigger. Something like that.

What is the probability that the Caroline gets shotin your decision model?

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I disagee...the BG would have shot the kid--not you. Otherwise, you are putting faith in a BG to *not* exert a couple pounds of pressure. You could do everything the BG wants--he can/will shoot the kid. BG is responsible for his actions--no one else.



One way or another, BG is going down.

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SIGguy229 wrote:

I disagee...the BG would have shot the kid--not you.

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Correct. I think we are all on the same page on that item.

(It's possible that the defender might actually accidently shoot the child but for simplicity's sake, we're assuming the BG who has the gun pointed at the kid's head is the one who "would have shot the kid.")




SIGguy229 wrote:

Otherwise, you are putting faith in a BG to *not* exert a couple pounds of pressure.

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I think it is a given that the BG can pull the trigger.




SIGguy229 wrote:

You could do everything the BG wants--he can/will shoot the kid.

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Ummm, is that really true? What if you gave him some wine?

And cheese?


SIGguy229 wrote:

BG is responsible for his actions--no one else.

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Without question.

But who is responsible for the commencement of shooting?




SIGguy229 wrote:

One way or another, BG is going down.

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You would shoot in this case, then? No hesitation...no option?

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Sounds like someone is excited about starting thier psych class.

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fxdwngflyr wrote:

Sounds like someone is excited about starting thier psych class.

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This is a scenario about a life or death situation.

What would you do, fxdwngflyer?

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No...I would bide my time and shoot when the opportunity presented itself with the relatively lowest risk of injury to the child.

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SIGguy229 wrote:

No...I would bide my time and shoot when the opportunity presented itself with the relatively lowest risk of injury to the child.

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You only have a few seconds. Maybe 2 or 3....

No time for biding...

You have decide...NOW...

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I'd participate futher in this thread, but it seems like you're intent on pigeon-hole'ing people into specific choices so you can proselytize others into your "correct" solution. Guess we need some Scenario Kool-aid to go along with your lackey's Blackhawk kool-aid. Don't be stingy, pour me a tall glass.

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unrequited wrote:

Guess we need some Scenario Kool-aid to go along with your lackey's Blackhawk kool-aid. Don't be stingy, pour me a tall glass.

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Make mine a double.
:lol:

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unrequited wrote:

I'd participate futher in this thread, but it seems like you're intent on pigeon-hole'ing people into specific choices so you can proselytize others into your "correct" solution. Guess we need some Scenario Kool-aid to go along with your lackey's Blackhawk kool-aid. Don't be stingy, pour me a tall glass.

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As I mentioned above, un, scenarios are supposed to be generative. They're not measurement methods. There are not any "answers." I think you are just not getting the idea. I think it may be because you are just resistantly close-minded.

It's about thinking. Don't be stingy with it, un. :lol:You can do. But you have to try.

Or maybe it's a Kobayashi Maru? (etfs)

Um, what would you do in the scenario, un?

P.S. This has nothing to do with your Serpa/Blackhawk subject.

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HankT wrote:

As I mentioned above, un, scenarios are supposed to be generative.
...Um, what would you do in the scenario, un?

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Another trap.

"they are not answers... but give me your answer"

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e6t already spelled it out better than I could ever have.

echo6tango wrote:

The scenario started out at least somewhat on the level, but these are silly, immature questions seeking replies from which you can take to wherever you're trying to take this.

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HankT wrote:

unrequited wrote:

I'd participate futher in this thread, but it seems like you're intent on pigeon-hole'ing people into specific choices so you can proselytize others into your "correct" solution. Guess we need some Scenario Kool-aid to go along with your lackey's Blackhawk kool-aid. Don't be stingy, pour me a tall glass.

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As I mentioned above, un, scenarios are supposed to be generative. They're not measurement methods. There are not any "answers." I think you are just not getting the idea. I think it may be because you are just resistantly close-minded.

It's about thinking. Don't be stingy with it, un. :lol:You can do. But you have to try.

Or maybe it's a Kobayashi Maru? (etfs)

Um, what would you do in the scenario, un?

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Tell you what, un. You say what you would do in the scenario. And I'll do the same.

Remember, there are no "correct answers" in scenarios analyses. It's about thinking.

Care to give it a go, un?



P.S. Maybe we can even get Pa. Patriot to opine on what he'd do.

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HankT wrote:

Tell you what, un. You say what you would do in the scenario. And I'll do the same.

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You'll get your answer when you give one. It's your thread, you should have given your opinion first. "Age before beauty, Cochise"...

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unrequited wrote:

HankT wrote:

Tell you what, un. You say what you would do in the scenario. And I'll do the same.

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You'll get your answer when you give one. It's your thread, you should have given your opinion first. "Age before beauty, Cochise"...

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You're avoiding it, un. I asked first. And it was my proposal.

C'mon. It won't hurt to do some thinking.

Not much, anyway.

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HankT wrote:

P.S. Maybe we can even get Pa. Patriot to opine on what he'd do.

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I already said no. I can't opine "what I would do" with the information given. Not possible.

There are simply too many variables not mentioned as well as moment to moment variables that a text discussion can not articulate.

Best I could do other than being in the situation is a simulation.
You set up a force-on-force simunitions stage of your above scenario, with real life (IE:dynamic) actors and I'll give it a go.

The point is that the "answer" or "discussion" could change at any moment depending on the events and perceptions that are impossible to "discuss" in a forum.

So have fun postulating your "non-answers" the the "non-questions" I'll leave learning about these complex problems to the appropriate training facilities where they belong.

ETA:
If it was a simple question like "do you OC" I would answer it! :lol::what:

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Hey Hank, is the sky blue?

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Unfair, Hank, invoking the Kobayashi Maru. I suspect that most of us actually get the reference... I should get out more, perhaps.

-ljp