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Thread: Police hit rates on shootings as low as 17.4 percent. John R. Lott, Jr.

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Washington Island, across Death's Door, Wisconsin, USA

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    2006 NYC Firearms Discharge Report 2.5 MB

    At, Dr. John R. Lott, Jr. wrote:
    New York City police statistics show that simply hitting a target, let
    alone hitting it in a specific spot, is a difficult challenge. In 2006,
    in cases where police officers intentionally fired a gun at a person, they
    discharged 364 bullets and hit their target 103 times, for a hit rate of
    28.3 percent, according to the department’s Firearms Discharge Report.
    The police shot and killed 13 people last year.

    In 2005, officers fired 472 times in the same circumstances, hitting their
    mark 82 times, for a 17.4 percent hit rate. They shot and killed nine
    people that year.

    In all shootings — including those against people, animals and in suicides
    and other situations — New York City officers achieved a 34 percent
    accuracy rate (182 out of 540), and a 43 percent accuracy rate when the
    target ranged from zero to six feet away. Nearly half the shots they fired
    last year were within that distance.

    In Los Angeles, where there are far fewer shots discharged, the police
    fired 67 times in 2006 and had 27 hits, a 40 percent hit rate, which,
    while better than New York’s, still shows that they miss targets more often
    they hit them. . . .

    The one important piece of information that is missing here is the number
    of people that the police shot at. If you take the estimate that I have
    that only about 5 percent of confrontations between armed victims and
    criminals result in the victim firing a gun, a 17.4 percent hit rate would
    imply that fewer than one percent of criminals would be shot. It would be
    interesting for someone to explain how this hit rate varies across cities.
    Thanks very much to Rich for sending me this link.

  2. #2
    Moderator / Administrator Grapeshot's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    N. Chesterfield, Va.

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    I wonder If any of us would do any better under the circumstances.
    You practice, hopefully more than most LEOs, but won't know until the moment of truth.
    Yata hey
    You will not rise to the occasion; you will fall back on your level of training. Archilochus, 650 BC

    Old and treacherous will beat young and skilled every time. Yata hey.

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