New York City police statistics show that simply hitting a target, let
alone hitting it in a specific spot, is a difficult challenge. In 2006,
in cases where police officers intentionally fired a gun at a person, they
discharged 364 bullets and hit their target 103 times, for a hit rate of
28.3 percent, according to the department’s Firearms Discharge Report.
The police shot and killed 13 people last year.
In 2005, officers fired 472 times in the same circumstances, hitting their
mark 82 times, for a 17.4 percent hit rate. They shot and killed nine
people that year.
In all shootings — including those against people, animals and in suicides
and other situations — New York City officers achieved a 34 percent
accuracy rate (182 out of 540), and a 43 percent accuracy rate when the
target ranged from zero to six feet away. Nearly half the shots they fired
last year were within that distance.
In Los Angeles, where there are far fewer shots discharged, the police
fired 67 times in 2006 and had 27 hits, a 40 percent hit rate, which,
while better than New York’s, still shows that they miss targets more often
they hit them. . . .
The one important piece of information that is missing here is the number
of people that the police shot at. If you take the estimate that I have
that only about 5 percent of confrontations between armed victims and
criminals result in the victim firing a gun, a 17.4 percent hit rate would
imply that fewer than one percent of criminals would be shot. It would be
interesting for someone to explain how this hit rate varies across cities.
Thanks very much to Rich for sending me this link.
