I suspect that the theory that OC will get you shot first, stems from situations more applicable to professional kidnappings, military or quasi-military settings (for example in Iraq), or to situations in which the perpetrator has already decided to shoot people beforehand. Seems to me, that most criminals would rather avoid the whole entanglement if they realized you were carrying, as there is too much risk for the possible payoff. Some research has shown that, for the basic mugger or robber, they tend to pick their victims intentionally and are pretty risk-averse.However, in something like the campus shootout scenario, if the assailant shows up with a gun, and notices you are carrying, I think the risk increases of moving to the head of his line. There was a fairly recent incident at a city council meeting, in which someone who apparently had a long-standing grudge with city hall, came prepared (perhaps intending all along) to shoot the place up. He took his first shot at the chief of police who was, as always, in attendance, and then went on to shoot several others after killing him first. I'd say that if you are going to OC, you need to practice your high speed presentation from the holster, til it's pretty quick!
Excellent points and good analysis of possible scenarios.
Also if someone gets all macho on you, you can't really back down easily if you're carrying openly. I'm 62 and if I'm carrying concealed, Ican usually rely on the old, "Look son, I'm twice your age, half your size, and have a bad back, but if you really think you have to prove you can whip me..." trick, and the macho blowhards typically "declare victory" and leave me alone. That would be harder to pull off if they knew I was carrying, and would be more likely to escalate beyond my control.
I have to disagree with you here. I have seen this argument before and have thought about it and don't think OC precludes walking away and may make it easier.
It is also good to keep in mind that just because they decide to shoot you first doesn't mean they will succeed, and you can draw a tad quicker from OC. I think however, that the most cogent argument for OC is the fact that all forms of self-defense carry are regularly under attack by the media and the PC society generally, so there is an urgent need for the public to start seeing guns in the hands of safe, good guys, in public places, to desensitize them to the effects of hollywood and the mainstream media. The public needs to relearn (we all knew this intuitively 40 years ago) that there is nothing inherently dangerous about having armed people in your vicinity, if anything just the opposite is the case.
More good points. Welcome to the forum!