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DC v. Heller

Thundar

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DKSuddeth wrote:
Thundar wrote:
If Scalia writes the majority opinion we are in good shape.
I'd much rather have Thomas writing the opinion. That's just me though.
I agree, Thomas is very obviously the most pro 2A, but Scalia will write in a manner that will be very difficult for the Antis to twist.
 

Liko81

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ama-gi wrote:
DKSuddeth wrote:
Thundar wrote:
If Scalia writes the majority opinion we are in good shape.
I'd much rather have Thomas writing the opinion. That's just me though.

It will be written by Roberts and if not Roberts, Kennedy.
You sound very sure of this; would you mind enlightening the rest of us if you know something about this process that we don't?
 

Dahwg

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From SCOTUSBLOG:
The only opinion remaining from the March sitting is Heller. The only Justice without a majority opinion from that sitting is Justice Scalia.
The Court has announced that it will release opinions against at 10am Wednesday. Because seven opinions remain, it will almost certainly have one additional day. Based on past practice, that day likely will be Thursday.

Looks good for the good guys if Scalia is the one writing the opinion.
 

Liko81

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Dahwg wrote:
Looks good for the good guys if Scalia is the one writing the opinion.

Probably; however, SCOTUSblog also said that if Scalia were writing for the majority, the decision's wording and rationale may only reflect a plurality of the Court, as some may hold the ban unconstitutional on differing logic. It also held out the possibility of Scalia voting in the minority (say it ain't so!).

Anyway, looks likewhoever's written it isn't done yet; the liveblog is closed. The guys who run it are expecting a Thursday sitting and they haven't ruled out Wednesday, so here's hoping we'll have a new legal weapon by the end of the week.
 

tattedupboy

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crotalus01 wrote:
I predict Bader-Ginsberg writes the dissent...

Nah. It'll be Stevens. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me at all if we see nine separate opinions on this one. Here's my prediction on how the justices will vote.

Repeal the D.C. gun ban:

Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia

Uphold the ban:

Bader-Ginsberg, Souter, Breyer, Stevens

Indeterminate:

Kennedy

Justice Kennedy has been the swing vote on the court since Justice O'Connor retired. My instinct tells me that he'll vote with Roberts, Alito, Thomas, and Scalia, but I've been wrong about him before and very well could be wrong about him again. I'm pretty sure I'm correct about the other eight, however.
 

Deanimator

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They've got to be dragging this out for a reason. I think that in addition to the telling questions asked by the Justices during oral arguments, the gloomy pronoucements by Brady and VPC tend toward not just a win, but a big win. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that Ginzburg's or Stephens' people had leaked the bad news to them so that they wouldn't be blindsided.

I feel like I'm waiting in London to hear if we've taken Omaha Beach.
 

hsmith

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Deanimator wrote:
They've got to be dragging this out for a reason. I think that in addition to the telling questions asked by the Justices during oral arguments, the gloomy pronoucements by Brady and VPC tend toward not just a win, but a big win. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that Ginzburg's or Stephens' people had leaked the bad news to them so that they wouldn't be blindsided.

I feel like I'm waiting in London to hear if we've taken Omaha Beach.
On Monday at 9:45 i was anxious and waiting
Today at 9:45 i was anxious and waiting

It is like waiting to open Christmas presents!
 

DopaVash

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Whats gonna be bad is that as soon as they say it's an individual right, then our congress will impose the AWB. :(
 

BobCav

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DopaVash wrote:
Whats gonna be bad is that as soon as they say it's an individual right, then our congress will impose the AWB. :(

Like what Ron White says: "I had the RIGHT to remain silent......just not the ability!"

Here we have the RIGHT to bear arms.....just not the arms to bear!

Pathetic, really. Is there some strategic legal reason he dumped that in BEFORE the SCOTUS ruling perhaps?
 

Liko81

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Deanimator wrote:
They've got to be dragging this out for a reason. I think that in addition to the telling questions asked by the Justices during oral arguments, the gloomy pronoucements by Brady and VPC tend toward not just a win, but a big win. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that Ginzburg's or Stephens' people had leaked the bad news to them so that they wouldn't be blindsided.

I feel like I'm waiting in London to hear if we've taken Omaha Beach.

If the news on the actual decisionhad been leaked, it would be a SERIOUS breach of protocol. NOBODY besides the justices, their assistants, and other people who work there and can't help but know are supposed to know the decision until the justices release it. As such, that information is considered classified under the same rules as U.S. intelligence reports, and if you leak it intentionally, go get your orange jumpsuit, do not pass go, do not collect $200. I would find it VERY difficult to believe that the Bradys would have that information and not the NRA even if it were leaked only to the Bradys. I would also find it incomprehensible that the NRA wouldn't broadcast that to the world; what better a weapon to haveagainst theBradys than proof that they're breaking Federal law to further their agenda.

The Brady Center is more than likely making an educated guess just like the rest of us, based on the weight of arguments to either side and the tone of the justices during oral arguments, that their decision will define the 2A as an individual right. That breaks the back of the major argument for D.C.'s ban and thus the laws composing it will likely be struck down. Thus Brady is shifting to Plan B: given an individual right, what "reasonable restrictions" would pass the standard of review likely to be imposed?

SCOTUS is dragging this out because it is alandmark decision. This case is expected to provide firm ground and a standard of review for judgement of other gun laws, and as such it needs to be well-thought-out; virtually all parties to the oral arguments agreed that Miller needed clarification and possibly a re-thinking of its interpretations.I would not be surprised if it were revealed that themajority opinionwas co-authored by more than one justice. It would be an unusual step, but given this case's importance in a crucial area of law, it is not impossible.
 

Evil Ernie

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The Bradys and all the other anti groups KNOW that its an inalienable Right. They just want to get rid of it. I don't think they would have much support if they just came out and said "Hey, we're dead set against the 2nd and the RKBA, lets just repeal the Amendment". They have to butter their words with catchphrases like "safety" and "children" so the population at large can swallow it easier.
There is no doubt in my mind that they are fully aware of what the 2nd really means.
 

Big Gay Al

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Glenn Beck said the decision will be released tomorrow. His "source" says the majority opinion is to be written by Justice Scalia. This sounds promising.
 
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