• We are now running on a new, and hopefully much-improved, server. In addition we are also on new forum software. Any move entails a lot of technical details and I suspect we will encounter a few issues as the new server goes live. Please be patient with us. It will be worth it! :) Please help by posting all issues here.
  • The forum will be down for about an hour this weekend for maintenance. I apologize for the inconvenience.
  • If you are having trouble seeing the forum then you may need to clear your browser's DNS cache. Click here for instructions on how to do that
  • Please review the Forum Rules frequently as we are constantly trying to improve the forum for our members and visitors.

Kirotv spreading half-truth statistics...

swatspyder

swatspyder

Regular Member
Joined
May 25, 2009
Messages
573
Location
University Place, Washington, USA
imported post

http://www.kirotv.com/news/23540945/detail.html

Poll Source Of Latest Guns In Starbucks Flap

SEATTLE -- Results of a poll by gun control advocates said the majority of Americans are against customers being able to carry guns into Starbucks locations.The poll by the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence said 56 percent voted in favor of Starbucks having a no guns policy and 37 percent said they were less likely to go to Starbucks because of its current policy of allowing guns in its stores.The Brady Campaign said that Republicans favored barring guns at Starbucks 50-37; independents wanted a no guns policy at Starbucks 55-30; men favored a no guns policy 48-34; rural residents favored no guns 52-33 and non-college graduates favored a no guns policy at Starbucks 56-30.The controversy started when gun rights activists started wearing their weapons into Starbucks stores in California. Gun control advocates fired back with a petition with 36,000 signatures asking Starbucks to ban guns."I certainly appreciate that people have the right to bear arms, but it’s a coffee shop, it's not a place where you need to bring a weapon," said Starbucks customer Rob Ginter.Starbucks said it can't be expected to have employees enforce a policy that is more restrictive than state law.Lake Research Partners conducted the national poll of 600 registered voters April 26-28. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.The Brady Campaign put more polling data on its website.
 
amzbrady

amzbrady

Regular Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2009
Messages
3,521
Location
Marysville, Washington, USA
imported post

Evidently INVESTIGATIVE reporting is a thing of the past. I didnt see a link for the reporters email. Should send them their other poll, the one that the Brady camplainers couldnt falsify and add numbers to. They also werent able to pick and choose certain people to take it.

http://apps.facebook.com/opinionpolls/index.php?pid=1271716670
Edited for...

Or better yet, why doesnt Kiro do their own poll?
 
T

Trigger Dr

Regular Member
Joined
Oct 3, 2007
Messages
2,760
Location
Wa, ,
imported post

AND this proves the reason behind the sales and stock value increase in *$

swatspyder wrote:
http://www.kirotv.com/news/23540945/detail.html

Poll Source Of Latest Guns In Starbucks Flap

SEATTLE -- Results of a poll by gun control advocates said the majority of Americans are against customers being able to carry guns into Starbucks locations.The poll by the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence said 56 percent voted in favor of Starbucks having a no guns policy and 37 percent said they were less likely to go to Starbucks because of its current policy of allowing guns in its stores.The Brady Campaign said that Republicans favored barring guns at Starbucks 50-37; independents wanted a no guns policy at Starbucks 55-30; men favored a no guns policy 48-34; rural residents favored no guns 52-33 and non-college graduates favored a no guns policy at Starbucks 56-30.The controversy started when gun rights activists started wearing their weapons into Starbucks stores in California. Gun control advocates fired back with a petition with 36,000 signatures asking Starbucks to ban guns."I certainly appreciate that people have the right to bear arms, but it’s a coffee shop, it's not a place where you need to bring a weapon," said Starbucks customer Rob Ginter.Starbucks said it can't be expected to have employees enforce a policy that is more restrictive than state law.Lake Research Partners conducted the national poll of 600 registered voters April 26-28. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.The Brady Campaign put more polling data on its website.
Click to expand...
 
gogodawgs

gogodawgs

Campaign Veteran
Joined
Oct 25, 2009
Messages
5,669
Location
Federal Way, Washington, USA
imported post

Lake Research is a Democratic Front see here for the woman who founded: Celinda Lake

Celinda Lake
President





Follow Celinda's postings on The Huffington Post, and friend Celinda on Facebook.

Celinda Lake is one of the Democratic Party's leading political strategists, serving as tactician and senior advisor to the national party committees, dozens of Democratic incumbents, and challengers at all levels of the electoral process. Celinda and her firm are known for cutting-edge research on issues including the economy, health care, the environment and education, and have worked for a number of institutions including the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Governor's Association (DGA), The White House Project, AFL-CIO, SEIU, CWA, IAFF, Sierra Club, NARAL, Human Rights Campaign, EMILY's List and the Kaiser Family Foundation. Her work has also taken her to advise fledgling democratic parties in several post-war Eastern European countries, including Bosnia, and South Africa. In 2008, Celinda worked as pollster for Vice President Biden.


There is more BS if you want to read it.....
 
HeesBonafide

HeesBonafide

Regular Member
Joined
Oct 18, 2009
Messages
152
Location
, ,
imported post

People,

One thing to know, that you only have to sample a small portion of the population in order to come up with accurate results.One will usually see a statement showing95% accuracy on poll results -- this is a mathematical certainty to mean that there is a 95 percent chance that the entire possible poolwould vote that exact way.

So, polling 600 people may be the number that represents the 95%. Someone may try to argue the merit of whether 600 people is representative of the whole -- don't waste your time unless you remember your statistical analysis math from college -- I have long forgotten how to figure that shit out, but understand the concept.

And I just saw the Kiro spot -- Kiro did NOT say that these percentages where "their" numbers, but referenced Brady stating that.
 
HeesBonafide

HeesBonafide

Regular Member
Joined
Oct 18, 2009
Messages
152
Location
, ,
imported post

Never have -- just took statistic classes in college. And I can't remember much of what I learned either, but I still have my degree!
 
swatspyder

swatspyder

Regular Member
Joined
May 25, 2009
Messages
573
Location
University Place, Washington, USA
imported post

HeesBonafide wrote:
People,

One thing to know, that you only have to sample a small portion of the population in order to come up with accurate results.One will usually see a statement showing95% accuracy on poll results -- this is a mathematical certainty to mean that there is a 95 percent chance that the entire possible poolwould vote that exact way.

So, polling 600 people may be the number that represents the 95%. Someone may try to argue the merit of whether 600 people is representative of the whole -- don't waste your time unless you remember your statistical analysis math from college -- I have long forgotten how to figure that @#$% out, but understand the concept.

And I just saw the Kiro spot -- Kiro did NOT say that these percentages where "their" numbers, but referenced Brady stating that.
Click to expand...
lol, by that standard, there should only be 3 people in the entire nation that should vote on the presidential election... wtf. One for each political party, I mean, since they are representative of the whole.

Oh and better yet, we are going to pick one from New York City, one from Los Angeles and one from Washington D.C.
 
gogodawgs

gogodawgs

Campaign Veteran
Joined
Oct 25, 2009
Messages
5,669
Location
Federal Way, Washington, USA
imported post

OK, guys....

THIS GROUP IS BOGUS THEY ARE A DEMOCRATIC OPERATIVE....

lakereasearchbogusgroup.jpg



[align=center]


















header_clients.gif






















SELECTED CANDIDATES AND BALLOT INITIATIVES






National
President Bill Clinton
Vice President Joe Biden


Senate
Mark Begich, Alaska
Carol Moseley Braun, Illinois
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana
Barbara Mikulski, Maryland
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan
Jon Tester, Montana


Congress
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, CA 08
Russ Carnahan, MO 03
Steve Cohen, TN 09
Gerry Connolly, VA 11
Donna Edwards, MD 04
Hank Johnson, GA 04
Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ 01
Carolyn Maloney, NY 14
Jerry McNerney, CA 11
Chellie Pingree, ME 01
Kurt Schrader, OR 05
Jan Schakowsky, IL 09
Loretta Sanchez, CA 47
Steve Rothman, NJ 09
Louise Slaughter, NY 28
Eddie Bernice Johnson, TX 30
Robert Wexler, FL 19
Anthony Weiner, NY 09
Ron Kind, WI 03
Silvestre Reyes, TX 16
Eleanor Holmes Norton, DC








"LRP's research provided critical insight for my upset victory over Richard Pombo and my first tough re-election win in a Republican-leaning district. David Mermin learned my district and is always accessible to provide strategic and timely insights."

— Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA)


Governors
Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
Washington Governor Mike Lowry
Washington Governor Gary Locke
West Virginia Governor Bob Wise

[/align]
 
amzbrady

amzbrady

Regular Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2009
Messages
3,521
Location
Marysville, Washington, USA
imported post

NavyLT wrote:
My email to them:
Dear Lake Research Group,

Brady Campaign poll results. Come on, seriously? Brady Campaign has posted publically that you did a poll of 600 voters nationwide. Really? What do you consider to be nationwide. You've got offices in Washington, DC, Berkely CA, and NYC, NY. Let me guess, that's probably what you consider to be nationwide. You realize by letting the Brady Campaign pay you off to produce skewed results from such a limited group of the American population you have lost any credibility that you might ever had. You really think that polling .0002% of the population that you can have any idea what the American public thinks about any topic at all? Heck, you poll 600 people in the correct locations and you could get 98% of Americans that say the moon is made of Swiss cheese!

Do yourselves a favor, don't sell out your company, your reputation, and your credibility to make a few thousand dollars doing something as completely ridiculous as this stunt. I would be very interested to hear your defense to this.

Very Respectfully,
John Havercroft

The Brady Campaign and KIROTV have sunk to an incredible new low with this absolutely unbelievably rediculous B.S.! What total morons.

swatspyder, I am disappointed in you my friend. You called this half-truth statistics. Really? Half? Come one, man. I am sure you meant to call it NO truth statistics!
Click to expand...
You should send your findings to Kiro, or better yet to their competetor showing their lack of investigating the truth behind their story. It's too bad OCDO doesnt have a journalist freindwith a big name paper. Better yet Sea Times should run Dave's articles. Now that would be something.
 
T

Tawnos

Regular Member
Joined
Jun 4, 2008
Messages
2,542
Location
Washington
imported post

swatspyder wrote:
HeesBonafide wrote:
People,

One thing to know, that you only have to sample a small portion of the population in order to come up with accurate results.One will usually see a statement showing95% accuracy on poll results -- this is a mathematical certainty to mean that there is a 95 percent chance that the entire possible poolwould vote that exact way.

So, polling 600 people may be the number that represents the 95%. Someone may try to argue the merit of whether 600 people is representative of the whole -- don't waste your time unless you remember your statistical analysis math from college -- I have long forgotten how to figure that @#$% out, but understand the concept.

And I just saw the Kiro spot -- Kiro did NOT say that these percentages where "their" numbers, but referenced Brady stating that.
Click to expand...
lol, by that standard, there should only be 3 people in the entire nation that should vote on the presidential election... wtf. One for each political party, I mean, since they are representative of the whole.

Oh and better yet, we are going to pick one from New York City, one from Los Angeles and one from Washington D.C.
Click to expand...
Hee'sBonafide is correct about the numbers, provided those numbers are random and have a 100% response rate. The problem with such numbers is that they exhibit self-selection bias, can be tweaked by using a weighted data set, etc.

Not only that, but the numbers in such a survey are almost never presented honestly, even if the survey itself is not methodologically flawed. By their own results, the correct way to word the results would be "there is a 95% chance that the general population, as a whole, would answer affirmatively between 52 and 60% of the time to the following question: "<question that was asked, as it was asked>". The numbers show a 95% chance that between 46 and 54% of Republicans, 44-52% of men, 48 and 56% of men, and 52 to 60% of rural residents would answer the same question affirmatively."

The questions are completely left out of the poll for obvious reasons - leading questions tend to produce leading results. That does not mean statistics, overall, are bad, just that they can be misused by a group with an agenda.
 
HeesBonafide

HeesBonafide

Regular Member
Joined
Oct 18, 2009
Messages
152
Location
, ,
imported post

I agree with you that they can skew the results with how they ask the questions and lead the "witness" ...err I mean the "subject"....err the person answering the question no other way than in a manner that suits their liking.
 
6

69Charger

Guest
imported post

I just polled my wife and she said she will not ban guns in my house.
NUFF SAID.
Dave
 
3

3/325

Regular Member
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Messages
332
Location
Kitsap Co., Washington, USA
imported post

Numbers are what they are, no more and no less. It's when we attempt to generate those numbers, and then assign meaning to them, that things get radically skewed.

Anyone can craft a poll to support anything.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top