I've done a LOT of thought about this. I've been carrying for a decade in various configurations, and I have CC permits from 3 states. I've worked for the DOJ and been involved with dozens of reports on exactly these sorts of issues. I'm not just pulling this stuff out of thin air--its established fact.
I'm not criticizing YOU, I'm criticizing the thinking behind this whole "element of surprise" myth. You didn't come up with that idea--it was taught to you by some CC instructor, who is part of a larger community of "groupthink" that has bought into this myth as a way to justify their existence.
The idea that CC gives you some sort of "tactical advantage of surprise" is a myth perpetuated by CC instructors as part of their effort to appeal to a certain type of person, and as a way to justify their existence. It has no basis in research, no basis in tactical analysis, and no basis in self defense logic. If CC were such a big tactical advantage, then police and military would CC.
The whole point behind CC has NOTHING to do with "surprising the BG". The entire reason behind CC is that it allows people to be prepared to defend themselves without having to worry about "scaring the sheep" who have been brainwashed to believe that ALL guns are evil. CC is a "workaround" to allow people to carry and yet not cause hoplophobes, Anti's and soccer moms to get all worked up into a lather.
The only "tactical advantage" that CC provides is as a lure for BGs to lull them into a sense that you are an"easy mark", so you can then exercise the privilege that a CC permit gives you. CC GUARANTEES that you'll have to shoot.
Personally, I don't ever want to shoot someone. I hope and pray that I never draw my firearm in a self-defense situation. So OC, with the overt visual deterrence it affords, makes a LOT more sense.
If a mugger attacks someone who is OCing, hes not going to expect ANYTHING, because he's obviously so irrationally insane that he is incapable of critical thinking. I don't buy the "element of surprise" argument. It makes no sense in terms of logistics, tactics, and the timeline of events in such a situation. Someone who is determined to use lethal force in the commission of a crime is NOT going to be "surprised" if you retaliate.
Please provide a SINGLE documented instance in the US where a violent attacker "drew" on an OCer.
I'll wait...
From what I've seen, this has happened ONCE, and that was an event in Wisconsin about a month ago, and that incident has such dicey circumstances that many folks are of the opinion that it was some sort of staged "false flag" event by the "antis" to make OC look bad...
Now research on how many times a mugger "draws" on a CCer. You'll find that this happens SEVERAL times a month in the US...
The BG ALWAYS has the element of surprise on his side. CC means you will ALWAYS be working from a REACTIVE mode, which by definition means the other guy has the tactical upper hand. Period. End of discussion.
I'd MUCH rather have a BG leave me alone altogether because I'm OCing than be forced to shoot someone BECAUSE I was CCing and the BG thought I was an "easy mark". Avoidance or deterrence are ALWAYS preferable to conflict.
This isn't rocket science, here folks...