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Thread: MAIG is at it Again - More misuse of statistics

  1. #1
    Regular Member Thundar's Avatar
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    Sep 2007
    Newport News, Virginia, USA

    MAIG is at it Again - More misuse of statistics

    Link to their report:


    My snapshot analysis:

    1) The MAIG Report falsely assumes all traces are from "crime scenes". Nothing could be further from the truth. Many traces are conducted when nothing illegal has taken place. Take for example the 2009 ATF Trace Data for Virginia. The link lists the top 10 reasons for a trace. 49% of the traces have no indication of illegal activity (Possession of a weapon, none and found)

    Link to ATF Virginia 2009 Gun Trace Page:

    Look up Alaska while you are there 57% of the traces for Alaska are for non-crime.

    2) The correlation is very weak.

    70% of all gun traces link back to that state. (30% relevance)

    39% of traces are not linked at all (61% relevance)

    50% of traces are for non-crime (50% relevance)

    30% x 61% x 50% = 9% relevance of out of state firearms trace to crime. I am fairly certain that there is a much higher correlation between govt. corruption and crime than out of state gun traces and crime.

    Lots more to talk about, but for now I have to get back to my day job.
    He wore his gun outside his pants for all the honest world to see. Pancho & Lefty

    The millions of people, armed in the holy cause of liberty, and in such a country as that which we possess, are invincible by any force which our enemy can send against us....There is no retreat but in submission and slavery! ...The war is inevitable–and let it come! I repeat it, Sir, let it come …………. PATRICK HENRY speech 1776

  2. #2
    Regular Member SFCRetired's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Montgomery, Alabama, USA
    Old saw: Figures don't lie, but liars do figure.

    The whole thing is about power and control. You cannot wield power and control the masses as long as those masses are armed.

    No less a personage than Isoroku Yamamoto realized this when he said that the mainland of the United States could never be invaded because, "there would be a gun behind every blade of grass."

    Bloomberg and all the other like-minded anti-gun folks are all about power and control. They will use every argument, deception, and flat-out lie that it takes to achieve their goals. This, btw, includes a whole bunch over at the UN.

    Personal opinion: Vote the American clowns out of office and then take two further actions: Get the United States out of the UN and then get the UN out of the United States. I firmly believe that the majority of nations in the UN hate the United States for no other reason than we have rights and freedoms they can only dream about.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Fairborn, Ohio, USA
    When the UN decides to let Mars and Pluto join, we should get out!

  4. #4
    Regular Member Bobarino's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Puyallup, Washington, USA
    Quote Originally Posted by eye95 View Post
    When the UN decides to let Mars and Pluto join, we should get out!
    Time to pack our bags:

    UN 'to appoint space ambassador to greet alien visitors'
    A space ambassador could be appointed by the United Nations to act as the first point of contact for aliens trying to communicate with Earth.

  5. #5
    Regular Member rotorhead's Avatar
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    Sep 2010
    Quote Originally Posted by Bobarino View Post

    Well that settles it then!

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Northern Virginia
    One of the main problems with the report is that it calculates each States' "Crime Gun Export Rate" as the the total number of "Crime Guns" that have crossed state lines per 100,000 of population.

    It does not measure the number of exported "Crime Guns" as a proportion of the total number of initial gun sales per state.

    I suspect that there is a strong correlation between the total number of exported "crime guns" and the total number of gun sales, because the more guns that are sold, the more likely they are to cross state lines and become the subject of a police trace.

    There is also likely to be a strong negative correlation between the enactment of certain gun control measures -- such as a state's requirement that the police provide a permit for each gun sale -- and a reduction in the total number of gun sales.

    There would be nothing particularly remarkable about a finding that reducing the total number of gun sales in a state would reduce the total number of guns exported by and then traced to that state: But such a study doesn't serve MAIG's purposes.

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