Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 26

Thread: Disturbing Washington CPL stats

  1. #1
    Regular Member Freedom First's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Kennewick, Wa.
    Posts
    850

    Disturbing Washington CPL stats

    Just got a reply from the DOL Firearms department regarding a question I had had asked, "How many CPLs are active right now in Washington State?" The answer really suprised me since I honestly thought the number would be much higher.

    Washington State Population from last census: 6.6 million
    Active CPL holders: 276,612

    >>Delete public schoolin' math skills and insert Mr Gray's math skills<<

    Quote Originally Posted by MrGray View Post
    That's not the way the numbers run, at least when I do them.

    the fraction of the population in WA with a CPL is 276612/6.6 million = 4.19%

    So for a single person, the odds that they have a CPL is 4.2%, or about 1 in 24. And the odds that they DON'T have a CPL is (1-.042), or 95.8%, or 23 out of 24.

    Now, if you have two people, the odds that NEITHER has a CPL is .958^2, or 91.9%. And for 10 people, the odds that none of them have a CPL is .958^10, or 65.8%. So about 2/3rds of the time, a group of 10 randomly chosen WA residents will not have a CPL holder among them, presuming that it's a representative selection. Conversely, about 1/3rd of the time, it will have at least one CPL holder.

    And with 100 people, the odds that none has a CPL is .958^100, or 1.4%. That's a 1 in 67 chance. The odds that at least one CPL holder is in the group of 100 are 66 in 67, very likely.

    All this is ignoring the fact that a substantial fraction of that 6.6 million is under the age of 21 and thus is ineligible for a CPL. According the the census, 24% is under the age of 18 according to the census, so that alone changes the numbers substantially. Roughly 5.5% of WA residents over the age of 18 has a CPL, and the odds that a random selection of 100 such residents over the age of 18 has zero CPL holders in it are about 1 in 291.
    Jeeze.



    All the more reason to be armed at all times. The 911 gun doesn't work for the first few minutes and you obviously cannot hope that the guy next to you will save your family from the crazy with a firearm since he probably isn't carrying either...

    This video says it all. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5n7inTI1dc
    Last edited by Freedom First; 01-13-2011 at 06:41 PM. Reason: Lame math skills!
    Freedom can never be lost, only given away by ignorance, by choice, or at the point of a gun. Here in America we can still choose.

    Freedom First 1775

    "I aim to misbehave..." Malcolm Reynolds

  2. #2
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Maple Valley, WA
    Posts
    44


    All we can do is spread the word and continue to carry!

  3. #3
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Tacoma, WA, ,
    Posts
    886
    Don't forget to factor in that there is roughly 28% of the population of Washington state that is under the age of 21, so therefore could not have a CPL if they wanted. But I understand the purpose of your numbers.

    No one will protect you until it is convenient for them to do so. Convenience means patience. Patience means time. Time can cost you your life.

    Carry on.

    -G20

  4. #4
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Olympia
    Posts
    539
    ...and how many don't qualify to carry due to felonies, etc

  5. #5
    Regular Member Lammo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Spokane, Washington, USA
    Posts
    581
    FWIW - - I pass by the CPL application desk on my way to our in the jail courtroom 3 or 4 times a week. Every single time I do there is someone at the desk filing an application (yes, it could be a renewal). The other day there was someone at the nearby information desk. I asked her if a lot of people were coming in for CPL applications. She pointed to the stack of about 20 information/application packets and told me that two weeks ago there were 80 packets in the stack. Anecdotal "evidence" of limited value but that's what's going on in Spokane.
    IAALBIAAFTDPASNIPHCBCALA
    Don't be so open minded that your brains fall out. (John Corapi, The Black Sheep Dog)
    Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read. (Groucho Marx)

  6. #6
    Regular Member Freedom First's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Kennewick, Wa.
    Posts
    850

    Numbers

    Seeing the numbers really made me understand the "A Right unexercised is a Right lost." Just as knowledge of the US Constitution is lost to most people, so are their Rights to carry, privacy, travel, speak, not speak, etc..

    We just need to make every encounter with the uninformed count. Having the OC pamplet with you and copies of the Constitution makes it much easier to make a point with your 2A display rather than a chance for a flip comment to write about here. The point is to make converts to common sense.

    Thanks for all you guys do.
    Freedom can never be lost, only given away by ignorance, by choice, or at the point of a gun. Here in America we can still choose.

    Freedom First 1775

    "I aim to misbehave..." Malcolm Reynolds

  7. #7
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    , ,
    Posts
    54
    Quote Originally Posted by Freedom First View Post
    Washington State Population from last census: 6.6 million
    Active CPL holders: 276,612

    That means that in a group of 100 people, there is approximately a one in three chance of there being an active CPL holder on site. Then factoring in the likelyhood of that CPL holder actually carrying, you can hope that maybe one in 1,000 are actually carrying a firearm... Jeeze.
    That's not the way the numbers run, at least when I do them.

    the fraction of the population in WA with a CPL is 276612/6.6 million = 4.19%

    So for a single person, the odds that they have a CPL is 4.2%, or about 1 in 24. And the odds that they DON'T have a CPL is (1-.042), or 95.8%, or 23 out of 24.

    Now, if you have two people, the odds that NEITHER has a CPL is .958^2, or 91.9%. And for 10 people, the odds that none of them have a CPL is .958^10, or 65.8%. So about 2/3rds of the time, a group of 10 randomly chosen WA residents will not have a CPL holder among them, presuming that it's a representative selection. Conversely, about 1/3rd of the time, it will have at least one CPL holder.

    And with 100 people, the odds that none has a CPL is .958^100, or 1.4%. That's a 1 in 67 chance. The odds that at least one CPL holder is in the group of 100 are 66 in 67, very likely.

    All this is ignoring the fact that a substantial fraction of that 6.6 million is under the age of 21 and thus is ineligible for a CPL. According the the census, 24% is under the age of 18 according to the census, so that alone changes the numbers substantially. Roughly 5.5% of WA residents over the age of 18 has a CPL, and the odds that a random selection of 100 such residents over the age of 18 has zero CPL holders in it are about 1 in 291.

  8. #8
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Kent, Washington, USA
    Posts
    376

    Get a woman....

    I have always believed that if you get a woman into guns.... you get a whole family (kids and friends, etc).

    If you get a guy you basically get one guy into guns. So for those "knuckle draggers" out there... be nice to woman that have a gun question. Don't make them go shoot a S&W 500 for there first gun.

    I have a women's only shoot coming up (it's full). Most have been shooting some but a few are pretty new. You can find a thread here posted back in December.

    We all can do our part - in supporting each other as we venture in life...

    We all "progress" differently so if you have a friend that has a gun and maybe a CPL but doesn't carry. Give them time to come to their own decision. Carrying a firearm can take years to come to. We don't need to beat them up for not deciding right now. How long did it take you? Some do come to it rather quickly but most takes months to years...

    Also this is an OC forum... there are some here that won't (for purely to make a point) get a CPL.

    Lastly, Numbers are how you want to use them. The total population is 6.6 million but like someone else has mentioned - how many are adults and legally able to obtain a CPL?

    We are growing everyday - we need to welcome the newbies. Remember when you first started out with your first gun? I'm sure you had lots of questions. Check yourself before you rant on and attack a newbie.

  9. #9
    Regular Member Freedom First's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Kennewick, Wa.
    Posts
    850

    Thank God! Someone who can do math!

    Quote Originally Posted by MrGray View Post
    That's not the way the numbers run, at least when I do them.

    the fraction of the population in WA with a CPL is 276612/6.6 million = 4.19%
    Thanks! I spent a bit too much time in school skipping school.

    Well, those number look far better but still, the point is that in a crowd like in Az on Saturday, by your numbers, there was a 50%+/- chance of there being someone armed in attendance. So be armed.

    Thanks again for fixing my math!
    Freedom can never be lost, only given away by ignorance, by choice, or at the point of a gun. Here in America we can still choose.

    Freedom First 1775

    "I aim to misbehave..." Malcolm Reynolds

  10. #10
    Regular Member jt59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Central South Sound
    Posts
    1,025
    Quote Originally Posted by Freedom First View Post
    Thanks! I spent a bit too much time in school skipping school.

    Well, those number look far better but still, the point is that in a crowd like in Az on Saturday, by your numbers, there was a 50%+/- chance of there being someone armed in attendance. So be armed.

    Thanks again for fixing my math!
    another element that may be missing in this number is that when I called these folks a few months ago, they also indicated that they are at least 6 months behind at any given time doing the data entry of new licenses (actually issued) into the system as there are only 4 data entry clerks and one of them was presently on the phone talking to me...

    the number is much bigger.....
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the grey twilight that knows not victory nor defeat....Teddy Roosevelt

  11. #11
    Regular Member 07Altima's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Monroe
    Posts
    131

    Well come February or March

    I will be getting not only my firearm, and CPL, but I will be getting my wife her first firearm, and CPL, and my Mother her first firearm, and CPL so that is three more to chalk up. I am also running for office for state Rep for the 39th here in washington state in 2012 but I have already started Campaigning hope to hear some feedback on this statement I posted about it on the washington forum so I hope I hear some good things

  12. #12
    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Whatcom County
    Posts
    17,338
    Of course these statistics don't include the many who carry without CPL's and there are quite a few. And not all are "criminals".
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

  13. #13
    Campaign Veteran MSG Laigaie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Philipsburg, Montana
    Posts
    3,137

    A correct assumption

    "Get a woman....

    I have always believed that if you get a woman into guns.... you get a whole family (kids and friends, etc)."
    S'truth
    I met my Sweet Baboo while we were both in the military (she Air Force, me Army). I gave her a pink pearl handled .25 in her stocking one Yule season. She carried it daily while walking to and from work in downtown Little Rock Ar. (then known as the murder capital of the US) She shoots expert with an M16 and has fired everything from .22 to hand grenade. There nay be anything more sexy than a goodlooking woman with a gun in her hand. "The family that shoots together...................." Well they are just big familys,

  14. #14
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Snohomish, Washington, ,
    Posts
    35
    Quote Originally Posted by sudden valley gunner View Post
    Of course these statistics don't include the many who carry without CPL's and there are quite a few. And not all are "criminals".
    I know I am going to catch hell for doing this, but I would disagree with your quote. I believe in the state of Washington if you carry concealed with out a permit - you are committing a crime - ergo you are a criminal.

    I may not agree with a law, but until we the people change the law, we should follow it.
    Last edited by Idlechater; 01-14-2011 at 04:01 PM.

  15. #15
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Blaine, WA, ,
    Posts
    1,315
    Quote Originally Posted by Idlechater View Post
    I know I am going to catch hell for doing this, but I would disagree with your quote. I believe in the state of Washington if you carry concealed with out a permit - you are committing a crime - ergo you are a criminal.

    I may not agree with a law, but until we the people change the law, we should follow it.
    Keep in mind he didn't say concealed. There is at least one person on this board who carries openly because he doesn't have a permit. Probably many more.

  16. #16
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Snohomish, Washington, ,
    Posts
    35
    Quote Originally Posted by heresolong View Post
    Keep in mind he didn't say concealed. There is at least one person on this board who carries openly because he doesn't have a permit. Probably many more.
    Good point which I entirely missed. I assumed he was referring to concealed and you know what that makes me!!!!

    Sorry...

  17. #17
    Regular Member Sparky508's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Graham, , USA
    Posts
    343
    Quote Originally Posted by Idlechater View Post
    I know I am going to catch hell for doing this, but I would disagree with your quote. I believe in the state of Washington if you carry concealed with out a permit - you are committing a crime - ergo you are a criminal.

    I may not agree with a law, but until we the people change the law, we should follow it.
    Dont forget the exceptions, outdoor activities and all.

    RCW 9.41.060
    Exceptions to restrictions on carrying firearms
    Last edited by Sparky508; 01-14-2011 at 04:27 PM. Reason: Cite

  18. #18
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Snohomish, Washington, ,
    Posts
    35
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparky508 View Post
    Dont forget the exceptions, outdoor activities and all.

    RCW 9.41.060
    Exceptions to restrictions on carrying firearms
    Like I said... I knew better...

    Of course, your post is also predicated on the carrier engaging in open carry rather than concealed carry...

  19. #19
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Bremerton, Washington, USA
    Posts
    226
    While I understand the point about carrying concealed without a CPL, 'criminal' from a strictly legal sense isn't accurate. A 'criminal' is someone guilty of a crime, and 'guilty' is based on a conviction. Due process. I certainly don't mean to split hairs for arguments sake. I can understand those who choose not to obtain a CPL on principled grounds, while knowing the very real legal risk that such a choice introduces. Insert the 'Better to be judged by twelve than carried by six' argument here.

    Carrying concealed is not necessarily the smartest form of civil disobedience as it pertains to making a positive contribution to pushing for greater liberty in a social or political sense. However in some cases, that isn't the most important consideration; survival is.

    I look forward to the day Washingtonians have eliminated all licensing for firearm related activity.

    Vote!

  20. #20
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Snohomish, Washington, ,
    Posts
    35
    See, you guys are just too dang smart for me...

    Perhaps it would have been better for me to say that I consider carrying concealed without a permit to be criminal behavior in Washington State... For better or worse, the point that I was trying to make is going to get lost on minutia here... That being that until we the people change the laws, we should abide by them... Thus, if you believe that people should be permitted to carry a concealed firearm without a permit (as I do) then you should work to have the law requiring a concealed permit removed... Until such time, I believe that we should all encourage one another to behave in a manner that is consistent with the laws of our state.

  21. #21
    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Whatcom County
    Posts
    17,338
    My vague post didn't help the matter.

    Calvin's been on top of clarifying me a few times, maybe because he has met me and knows my personality a bit.

    But since you brought it up, I would like to include that many are breaking the law and carrying concealed too.

    Personally like Aktion mentioned I don't think those who constitutionally carry are not wrong for doing so, getting a permit is an infringement and an impairment, which both federal and state constitutions mention. Would I endorse or encourage the breaking of the law? No I don't. Do I judge someone for exercising the fundamental right to carry, absolutely not.
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

  22. #22
    Regular Member fire suppressor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Kitsap County
    Posts
    872
    Sometimes I carry a backup can you put me down for +2? Maybe if we all start carrying more guns on us we can pad this a little
    "Fight like you train, train like you fight"

  23. #23
    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Whatcom County
    Posts
    17,338
    Quote Originally Posted by fire suppressor View Post
    Sometimes I carry a backup can you put me down for +2? Maybe if we all start carrying more guns on us we can pad this a little
    With that sort of logic you would make a good candidate for government worker.
    Last edited by sudden valley gunner; 01-16-2011 at 10:18 AM.
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

  24. #24
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Renton, WA
    Posts
    61
    If we're backing out those not of age and those ineligible due to prior brushes with the law, we may want to consider backing out the antis as well. In other words, consider the universe of those willing and able.

    I'm doing my part; convinced two good buddies to get their CPL this month.

  25. #25
    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Whatcom County
    Posts
    17,338
    Me Openly carrying my firearm the last few years has added to the CPL and folks who didn't own firearms and went and bought. Just another added benefit of OC, making people aware that they too have the right to carry even if they are not necessarily for Open Carry.
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •