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Thread: Disaster and shelter OC

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    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Disaster and shelter OC

    I'm buttoning up things at the farm today because it's looking more like Irene is going to come ashore in NC. I'm right on the NC line.
    Isabel took much the same track and was not as strong, and it looked like an atomic bomb went off from Central Va to the coast. York was like another planet the next morning.

    I doubt The Novites here will be inconvenienced, but for tidewater and likely central Va...some of you may be looking at shelters if it does come ashore. Even if you don't go to a shelter remember that some areas were without power for a month after Isabel.

    You might want to check and see that you have plenty of ammunition, dry bags for your guns and whatever else you may need because if this is like Isabel, nothing will be open for a while.

    Also bone up on Va's disaster gun laws and keep in mind that most shelters will prohibit weapons. I'm sure everyone will abide by the rules

    Times like this make me especially happy to be 100% off grid and completely isolated

    Last edited by peter nap; 08-23-2011 at 09:53 AM.

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    Regular Member TFred's Avatar
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    This map should automatically update as they issue new forecasts. You may need to refresh the page. The time the image was generated is in the lower left corner of the map. Their track record for Day 4 and Day 5 forecast locations are 200 and 250 mile errors, respectively, on average. However, this storm is also forecast to become very large, so that error will be mitigated by the sheer size.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    TFred


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    Regular Member TFred's Avatar
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    Ha! The inherent evil of allowing for editing of posts!!

    TFred

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    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Thanks Tfred...yes, this could be VERY large. It may well become a Cat 4 when it makes landfall.

    You never know until they hit but right, now it isn't looking good. We're spotters for the NWS and stayed just ahead of Isabel from the Beach to Richmond. It was impressive. I was on the old wooden pier in VB when it came ashore. That was interesting

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    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post
    Thanks Tfred...yes, this could be VERY large. It may well become a Cat 4 when it makes landfall.
    The current Maximum Wind Speed Probability Table gives a roughly 56% chance that it will be a Hurricane of any category at 8AM Saturday (shortly before it is expected to make landfall in NC). Of that, there is a 1% chance it will be a Cat 4 storm, 9% it will be Cat 3, 16% for Cat 2, and 29% it will be Cat 1. There's also a 28% chance it will be a Tropical Storm.

    Odds are it will be either a TS or C1 when it makes landfall, and by the time it reaches the Virginia line it should be significantly weaker.

    However, y'all will still be in our prayers.
    Alma 43:47 - "And again, the Lord has said that: Ye shall defend your families even unto bloodshed...."
    Self defense isn't just a good idea, it's a commandment.

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    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grylnsmn View Post
    The current Maximum Wind Speed Probability Table gives a roughly 56% chance that it will be a Hurricane of any category at 8AM Saturday (shortly before it is expected to make landfall in NC). Of that, there is a 1% chance it will be a Cat 4 storm, 9% it will be Cat 3, 16% for Cat 2, and 29% it will be Cat 1. There's also a 28% chance it will be a Tropical Storm.

    Odds are it will be either a TS or C1 when it makes landfall, and by the time it reaches the Virginia line it should be significantly weaker.

    However, y'all will still be in our prayers.
    Still a lot of if's because it hasn't formed the eye yet and still is out of the Gulf Stream. but I'll bet it is at least a Cat 3 by Saturday morning.
    The biggest question and concern is if the eye passes to the West or East of me if it does come inland.

    If it goes West, I get hammered, East and I get rain and Tidewater gets the big part all by themselves.

    With a storm 5 days out, anything can happen but the MWSP table is just a computerized coin toss at this point. My last call to the NWS produced a best guess of a Cat 2 or 3 with the eye well East of me.

    Hopefully you're right though. Us tree farmers don't like wind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post
    Still a lot of if's because it hasn't formed the eye yet and still is out of the Gulf Stream. but I'll bet it is at least a Cat 3 by Saturday morning.
    The biggest question and concern is if the eye passes to the West or East of me if it does come inland.

    If it goes West, I get hammered, East and I get rain and Tidewater gets the big part all by themselves.

    With a storm 5 days out, anything can happen but the MWSP table is just a computerized coin toss at this point. My last call to the NWS produced a best guess of a Cat 2 or 3 with the eye well East of me.

    Hopefully you're right though. Us tree farmers don't like wind.
    If it's any comfort, a blog posting from the Washington Post suggests that it's likely to skim the coast rather than head inland.

    Of course, as they point out there, 4-6 days is an eternity for any hurricane prediction.
    Alma 43:47 - "And again, the Lord has said that: Ye shall defend your families even unto bloodshed...."
    Self defense isn't just a good idea, it's a commandment.

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    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grylnsmn View Post
    If it's any comfort, a blog posting from the Washington Post suggests that it's likely to skim the coast rather than head inland.

    Of course, as they point out there, 4-6 days is an eternity for any hurricane prediction.
    That's a pretty good analogy. Good blog!
    He's betting on the speed of the steering currents that are still a big question mark.
    I just looked at the latest images and it's starting to form an eye.

    Funny, I;ve seen guaranteed hits an hour from landfall that took a hard right and we didn't even get rain. Then there was tropical storm Gaston that no one expected and darn near washed Va off of the map.

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    Campaign Veteran roscoe13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post

    Also bone up on Va's disaster gun laws and keep in mind that most shelters will prohibit weapons. I'm sure everyone will abide by the rules
    That's why we need to keep pushing for a bill like Delegate Athey's HB 1070 from 2010. I know Peter, it was only P4P, but it's a start....

    Roscoe
    Last edited by roscoe13; 08-23-2011 at 01:07 PM.
    "The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil interference - they deserve a place of honor with all that's good." - George Washington

  10. #10
    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Boy...just had an earthquake. I've never been through one before.
    What next?

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    Campaign Veteran roscoe13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post
    Boy...just had an earthquake. I've never been through one before.
    What next?
    My first too... Pestilence?
    "The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil interference - they deserve a place of honor with all that's good." - George Washington

  12. #12
    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by roscoe13 View Post
    My first too... Pestilence?
    Saslaws and Palins, living together

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    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post
    Boy...just had an earthquake. I've never been through one before.
    What next?
    Come on, don't you remember the 4.5 in December 2003? It was centered close to this one, and we felt it pretty clear up in NoVa. You should have felt it down there as well.
    Alma 43:47 - "And again, the Lord has said that: Ye shall defend your families even unto bloodshed...."
    Self defense isn't just a good idea, it's a commandment.

  14. #14
    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grylnsmn View Post
    Come on, don't you remember the 4.5 in December 2003? It was centered close to this one, and we felt it pretty clear up in NoVa. You should have felt it down there as well.
    We didn't really feel that one. Our Airedale laid on the floor and whined for a few seconds but it was later when I saw the news that I realized why.

    Great Danes are more sensitive I guess. Zeus headed into the bathroom and just came out a few minutes ago.

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    Campaign Veteran skidmark's Avatar
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    Anybody know who those four guys were riding by on horseback?

    stay safe.
    "He'll regret it to his dying day....if ever he lives that long."----The Quiet Man

    Because stupidity isn't a race, and everybody can win.

    "No matter how much contempt you have for the media in all this, you don't have enough"
    ----Allahpundit

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    Regular Member 45acpForMe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skidmark View Post
    Anybody know who those four guys were riding by on horseback?

    stay safe.

    Dang if a measure of wheat is a penny (a days wages) what the hell will ammo cost?
    Last edited by 45acpForMe; 08-23-2011 at 04:16 PM.

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    Regular Member ocholsteroc's Avatar
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    I'm right on the NC line.
    I thought you where NOVA area??

    I stocked up on ammo this week :P

    I bought some shotgun and 22lr. I already have stuff but extra is good
    Last edited by ocholsteroc; 08-23-2011 at 07:32 PM.
    How come a DUI you can get your driver licence back, which it is a privilege. But if commiting a felon, even something non violent like stealing, you are denied your constitutional rights for the rest of your life?
    If you don't support the Second Amendment to the Constitution, what other parts of the Constitution do you reject?
    More restrictions on guns? how about restrictions on chainsaws and knives?

  18. #18
    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ocholsteroc View Post
    I thought you where NOVA area??
    That's the kind of rude thing Novacop would say

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    Regular Member wylde007's Avatar
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    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post
    Saslaws and Palins, living together
    Mass hysteria.
    The quiet war has begun, with silent weapons
    And the newest slavery is to keep the people poor, and stupid
    Novos ordo seclorum ~ Mustaine

    Never argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

  20. #20
    Regular Member SouthernBoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peter nap View Post
    Also bone up on Va's disaster gun laws and keep in mind that most shelters will prohibit weapons. I'm sure everyone will abide by the rules
    Please correct me here if I am wrong, but doesn't Virginia have laws in place that prohibit any authorities from attempting to confiscate private arms such as the unconscionable acts we saw play out in New Orleans after Katrina? And that any such attempts can be resisted by the people since they would be illegal?

    I suspect that many shelters would wind up in schools, hence the invocation of the ridiculous federal intrusion into our rights. What else might you be able to add that would help any members who might find themselves in a disaster area?

    Information of this nature is most helpful to folks who might otherwise not be fully knowledgeable of whatever laws exist regarding arms and the bearing of them.


    Thanks and best of luck to you and other members down there this weekend. The one I remember most was Hazel in 1954.
    Last edited by SouthernBoy; 08-24-2011 at 08:18 AM.
    In the final seconds of your life, just before your killer is about to dispatch you to that great eternal darkness, what would you rather have in your hand? A cell phone or a gun?

    Si vis pacem, para bellum.

    America First!

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    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBoy View Post
    Please correct me here if I am wrong, but doesn't Virginia have laws in place that prohibit any authorities from attempting to confiscate private arms such as the unconscionable acts we saw play out in New Orleans after Katrina? And that any such attempts can be resisted by the people since they would be illegal?

    I suspect that many shelters would wind up in schools, hence the invocation of the ridiculous federal intrusion into our rights. What else might you be able to add that would help any members who might find themselves in a disaster area?

    Information of this nature is most helpful to folks who might otherwise not be fully knowledgeable of whatever laws exist regarding arms and the bearing of them.


    Thanks and best of luck to you and other members down there this weekend. The one I remember most was Hazel in 1954.
    Yes and no.
    If I'm not mistaken that is only for government run shelters.
    Many are private shelters set up in churches and other private properties and the law may not apply.

    Maybe someone that's done some research can comment. I wouldn't go to one under any circumstance so I didn't keep up with the bill.

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    Shelters in Virginia are run by the American Red Cross under the authority of the local government and the local Department of Social Services. The Red Cross makes the rules. They also handle all the expenses through their disaster relief branch, which they are chartered by the U.S. Congress to do and have been for about 100 years.

    I don't think the firearm policy has changed any the past 50 or so years. I highly advocate sheltering in place come hell or high water.

  23. #23
    Accomplished Advocate peter nap's Avatar
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    Thankfully, it's moving a little further east. It is a Cat 3 now and should be a 4 when it hits the Outer Banks, so the Beach members are gonna get wet and windy but it looks like Central Va and us down South, are just gonna get wet. Flooding may be a problem but my river goes up in a heartbeat anyway, so I built high enough to not worry about it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kenny View Post
    I highly advocate sheltering in place come hell or high water.
    Yea, it's the high water part that gets hard. House has been flooded twice in 6 years. I'm looking forward to this storm as much as a shot in the head. I will most likely cut power and ride it out, no shelters for this fella!
    It is better to have less thunder in the mouth and more lightning in the hand. - Apache proverb

  25. #25
    Regular Member SouthernBoy's Avatar
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    God be with you gentlemen over the next couple of days. And thanks for the replies.
    In the final seconds of your life, just before your killer is about to dispatch you to that great eternal darkness, what would you rather have in your hand? A cell phone or a gun?

    Si vis pacem, para bellum.

    America First!

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