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Disaster and shelter OC

peter nap

peter nap

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I'm buttoning up things at the farm today because it's looking more like Irene is going to come ashore in NC. I'm right on the NC line.
Isabel took much the same track and was not as strong, and it looked like an atomic bomb went off from Central Va to the coast. York was like another planet the next morning.

I doubt The Novites here will be inconvenienced, but for tidewater and likely central Va...some of you may be looking at shelters if it does come ashore. Even if you don't go to a shelter remember that some areas were without power for a month after Isabel.

You might want to check and see that you have plenty of ammunition, dry bags for your guns and whatever else you may need because if this is like Isabel, nothing will be open for a while.

Also bone up on Va's disaster gun laws and keep in mind that most shelters will prohibit weapons. I'm sure everyone will abide by the rules:uhoh:

Times like this make me especially happy to be 100% off grid and completely isolated:D

145713W5_NL_sm.gif
 
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TFred

TFred

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This map should automatically update as they issue new forecasts. You may need to refresh the page. The time the image was generated is in the lower left corner of the map. Their track record for Day 4 and Day 5 forecast locations are 200 and 250 mile errors, respectively, on average. However, this storm is also forecast to become very large, so that error will be mitigated by the sheer size.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TFred

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peter nap

peter nap

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Thanks Tfred...yes, this could be VERY large. It may well become a Cat 4 when it makes landfall.

You never know until they hit but right, now it isn't looking good. We're spotters for the NWS and stayed just ahead of Isabel from the Beach to Richmond. It was impressive. I was on the old wooden pier in VB when it came ashore. That was interesting:lol:
 
G

grylnsmn

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peter nap said:
Thanks Tfred...yes, this could be VERY large. It may well become a Cat 4 when it makes landfall.
Click to expand...
The current Maximum Wind Speed Probability Table gives a roughly 56% chance that it will be a Hurricane of any category at 8AM Saturday (shortly before it is expected to make landfall in NC). Of that, there is a 1% chance it will be a Cat 4 storm, 9% it will be Cat 3, 16% for Cat 2, and 29% it will be Cat 1. There's also a 28% chance it will be a Tropical Storm.

Odds are it will be either a TS or C1 when it makes landfall, and by the time it reaches the Virginia line it should be significantly weaker.

However, y'all will still be in our prayers.
 
peter nap

peter nap

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grylnsmn said:
The current Maximum Wind Speed Probability Table gives a roughly 56% chance that it will be a Hurricane of any category at 8AM Saturday (shortly before it is expected to make landfall in NC). Of that, there is a 1% chance it will be a Cat 4 storm, 9% it will be Cat 3, 16% for Cat 2, and 29% it will be Cat 1. There's also a 28% chance it will be a Tropical Storm.

Odds are it will be either a TS or C1 when it makes landfall, and by the time it reaches the Virginia line it should be significantly weaker.

However, y'all will still be in our prayers.
Click to expand...

Still a lot of if's because it hasn't formed the eye yet and still is out of the Gulf Stream. but I'll bet it is at least a Cat 3 by Saturday morning.
The biggest question and concern is if the eye passes to the West or East of me if it does come inland.

If it goes West, I get hammered, East and I get rain and Tidewater gets the big part all by themselves.

With a storm 5 days out, anything can happen but the MWSP table is just a computerized coin toss at this point. My last call to the NWS produced a best guess of a Cat 2 or 3 with the eye well East of me.

Hopefully you're right though. Us tree farmers don't like wind.
 
G

grylnsmn

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peter nap said:
Still a lot of if's because it hasn't formed the eye yet and still is out of the Gulf Stream. but I'll bet it is at least a Cat 3 by Saturday morning.
The biggest question and concern is if the eye passes to the West or East of me if it does come inland.

If it goes West, I get hammered, East and I get rain and Tidewater gets the big part all by themselves.

With a storm 5 days out, anything can happen but the MWSP table is just a computerized coin toss at this point. My last call to the NWS produced a best guess of a Cat 2 or 3 with the eye well East of me.

Hopefully you're right though. Us tree farmers don't like wind.
Click to expand...

If it's any comfort, a blog posting from the Washington Post suggests that it's likely to skim the coast rather than head inland.

Of course, as they point out there, 4-6 days is an eternity for any hurricane prediction.
 
peter nap

peter nap

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grylnsmn said:
If it's any comfort, a blog posting from the Washington Post suggests that it's likely to skim the coast rather than head inland.

Of course, as they point out there, 4-6 days is an eternity for any hurricane prediction.
Click to expand...

That's a pretty good analogy. Good blog!
He's betting on the speed of the steering currents that are still a big question mark.
I just looked at the latest images and it's starting to form an eye.

Funny, I;ve seen guaranteed hits an hour from landfall that took a hard right and we didn't even get rain. Then there was tropical storm Gaston that no one expected and darn near washed Va off of the map.
 
R

roscoe13

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peter nap said:
Also bone up on Va's disaster gun laws and keep in mind that most shelters will prohibit weapons. I'm sure everyone will abide by the rules:uhoh:
Click to expand...

That's why we need to keep pushing for a bill like Delegate Athey's HB 1070 from 2010. I know Peter, it was only P4P, but it's a start....

Roscoe
 
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peter nap

peter nap

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grylnsmn said:
Come on, don't you remember the 4.5 in December 2003? It was centered close to this one, and we felt it pretty clear up in NoVa. You should have felt it down there as well.
Click to expand...

We didn't really feel that one. Our Airedale laid on the floor and whined for a few seconds but it was later when I saw the news that I realized why.

Great Danes are more sensitive I guess. Zeus headed into the bathroom and just came out a few minutes ago.
 
SouthernBoy

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peter nap said:
Also bone up on Va's disaster gun laws and keep in mind that most shelters will prohibit weapons. I'm sure everyone will abide by the rules:uhoh:
Click to expand...

Please correct me here if I am wrong, but doesn't Virginia have laws in place that prohibit any authorities from attempting to confiscate private arms such as the unconscionable acts we saw play out in New Orleans after Katrina? And that any such attempts can be resisted by the people since they would be illegal?

I suspect that many shelters would wind up in schools, hence the invocation of the ridiculous federal intrusion into our rights. What else might you be able to add that would help any members who might find themselves in a disaster area?

Information of this nature is most helpful to folks who might otherwise not be fully knowledgeable of whatever laws exist regarding arms and the bearing of them.


Thanks and best of luck to you and other members down there this weekend. The one I remember most was Hazel in 1954.
 
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