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Thread: Heavy drinking linked to owning firearms?

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    Activist Member carsontech's Avatar
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    Heavy drinking linked to owning firearms?

    Sorry if someone already posted this, but this is ridiculous:

    "Gun owners who carry concealed weapons or have confronted another person with a gun are more than twice as likely to drink heavily as people who do not own guns, according to a study by UC Davis researchers. Binge drinking, chronic heavy alcohol use, and drinking and driving were all more common among gun owners generally than among non-owners, even after adjusting for factors such as age, sex, race, and state of residence. But alcohol abuse was most common among firearm owners who participated in gun-related behaviors that carry a risk of violence, which also included having a loaded, unlocked firearm in the home and driving or riding in a vehicle with a loaded firearm."

    http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/publish/news/cvc/5416

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    Regular Member OldCurlyWolf's Avatar
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    Saw this posted somewhere a couple of months back. I don't remember if it was here or elsewhere.
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    Regular Member okboomer's Avatar
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    Does that mean I need to go out and buy alcohol now? Geesh, I am so behind the times ... keeping up with the astro turf, my bible, the size of my penis, and now alkihaul ... evidently I am not a very good gun owner or teabagger at all
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    Regular Member DrakeZ07's Avatar
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    Does 6 daiquiri's a night and some wine on the holidays count as heavy drinking? o.O
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    Regular Member Redbaron007's Avatar
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    I wonder how many of those folks interviewed also own a vehicle. That must mean, too, there is a larger probability that if you own a vehicle you will/are a heavy drinker!

    This quote at the bottom of the article is hilarious!!
    The UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program is an organized research program that addresses the causes, nature and prevention of violence. Its mission is to conduct research to further America’s efforts to understand and prevent violence. Current major areas of emphasis are the prediction of criminal behavior, the effectiveness of waiting-period and background-check programs for prospective purchasers of firearms, and the determinants of firearm violence.
    Talk about anti-gun.

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    Founder's Club Member ixtow's Avatar
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    I have not yet screwed an immediate family, still have all my teeth, don't drink alcohol, on't do drugs, never been to a Tea Party event....

    My guns must be a figment of my imagination...

    Research, or Mass Slander? Is there a difference anymore?
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    Regular Member Sabotage70's Avatar
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    Damn. I've been sober for 10 years now. I guess I better fall off the wagon. **rollingmydamneyes**

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    What else would you expect from a place that makes the politicians in sacramento like republicans.

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    This report looks to be an instance of the logical fallacy "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". Here's the appropriate answer to BS like this: "Correlation does not imply causation."

    For example, in the summertime, consumption of ice cream increases, as well as the rate of heart attacks. These 2 events are correlated (they go up and down at the same time.) The fallacy would be stated as: Ice Cream causes heart attacks. The reason it's a fallacy is because there is a 3rd factor that affects both of them (the heart and increased physical activity in summer.)

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    Regular Member Shovelhead's Avatar
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    HMMMmmmmmmm
    And all this time I thought 'heavy drinking' was linked to Democratic votes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kcgunfan View Post
    This report looks to be an instance of the logical fallacy "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". Here's the appropriate answer to BS like this: "Correlation does not imply causation."

    For example, in the summertime, consumption of ice cream increases, as well as the rate of heart attacks. These 2 events are correlated (they go up and down at the same time.) The fallacy would be stated as: Ice Cream causes heart attacks. The reason it's a fallacy is because there is a 3rd factor that affects both of them (the heart and increased physical activity in summer.)
    Ah yes, but your reasoning utilizes logic and facts; otherwise known as the anti's personal kryptonite.

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    Regular Member RPGamingGirl's Avatar
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    lol the only gun owner that i know that was a heavy drinker at any point stopped such behavior while he was still in college (and before he owned a firearm). He's 48 now.

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    More churches in high crime areas. Same thing.
    It takes a village to raise an idiot.

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    Regular Member altajava's Avatar
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    When I stopped drinking heavily I found I had more money to spend on guns.

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    Activist Member golddigger14s's Avatar
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    Snip:
    "The data are 15 years old, but no more recent data are available. Only eight states chose to ask questions about both firearms and alcohol. Despite these limitations, Wintemute said, the study’s results provide important evidence about gun ownership and the potential for gun use to be closely associated with the misuse and abuse of alcohol."

    !5 years old?
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    Regular Member okboomer's Avatar
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    You know, they are members of the UC Davis campus ... doesn't that mean that anything they publish like this have to be peer reviewed?

    If it isn't peer reviewed, perhaps that should be brought to the attention of the Department Head that oversees the group?

    If it is peer reviewed, then how did they get that fallacy of logic through? Otherwise, it is the hypothesis (poses the question?), not the conclusion (answers the hypothesis?) (Gawd, freshman year was sooooo many decades ago :P)
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    I never drink alcohol.

    One of my friend's families is religiously opposed to drinking alcohol also, and they also have a lot of guns.

    Their data just doesn't correspond to most of the gun owners I know.
    Last edited by Felid`Maximus; 11-25-2011 at 07:04 PM.

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    Regular Member carry for myself's Avatar
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    i own lots of guns. i drink a beer a week. i've never driven drunk and never acted in a dangerous manner. however i have seen my liberal gun hating save the whales lets occupy everything neighbor stumble out of his house at 2pm in his tighty whiteys screaming at the lord for not giving him a winning scratch ticket.............just saying.........
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    I don't drink at all. Never have

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    Regular Member xmanhockey7's Avatar
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    What about the fact those of us who have carry permits are far more law abiding than the general public? Besides what about the fact we live in america where A LOT of people own firearms. This study is like saying people who eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches on a regular basis consume more water than people who don't. It's a ridiculous correlation.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Felid`Maximus View Post
    I never drink alcohol.

    One of my friend's families is religiously opposed to drinking alcohol also, and they also have a lot of guns.

    Their data just doesn't correspond to most of the gun owners I know.
    How many felons do you know that have guns. They are including criminals and probably doing other things to bias the data. Its easy to have biased sample data; as long as they don't try hard for good data, it will probably look how they want.
    Don't believe any facts that I say! This is the internet and it is filled with lies and untruth. I invite you to look up for yourself the basic facts that my arguments might be based upon. This way we can have a discussion where logic and hints on where to find information are what is brought to the forum and people look up and verify facts for themselves.

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    Regular Member ncwabbit's Avatar
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    statistics...

    Interesting to note the author, Dr G J Wintemute, Director, Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California, of the referenced study has a long publishing history (nine articles) starting in 1998 of the medical journal Injury Prevention and a review of the journalistic abstracts show his work is anti gun: http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/

    I am unable to ascertain if Injury Prevention uses peer reviewed articles prior to publishing material. And the OP cite w/the original information UC Davis seems to take some poetic license as it mentions OC/CC while the abstract of Dr. Wintemut’s article doesn’t say a word about these methodologies but rather a blanket statement: “Heavy alcohol use was most common among firearm owners who also engaged in behaviours such as carrying a firearm for protection against other people and keeping a firearm at home that was both loaded and not locked away.”

    While the article states the author used a database of 15K responders to reach his conclusion, it is interesting to note the CDC’s BBRFSS telephonic questionnaire only has 5 questions relating to alcohol and these questions are only asked every two years and my research did not turn up any specific questions regarding firearms.

    So given this author’s self serving proclivity to write about firearms in a negative way in this journal using suspect statistical data I must conclude Twain’s often used quote is applicable:

    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    wabbit

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    So I went to the "injury prevention" website and found an article that says there's likely a causation of drinking non-diet soda and violence found here. How about rather than thinking there's a causation effect they think about a correlation between those who prefer diet soda and their attitudes that make them less likely to perform violence. With statements like that how can they claim to be "peer reviewed" unless by "peer" they mean other like-minded people.

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    Founder's Club Member ixtow's Avatar
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    I'm gonna go have a beer and shoot someone.

    Really?
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    Campaign Veteran since9's Avatar
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    I'll deal with the quote first, then tackle the rather good comments by y'all.

    Quote Originally Posted by carsontech View Post
    Sorry if someone already posted this, but this is ridiculous:
    Yes, it is ridiculous. Here's why:

    [quto]["Gun owners who carry concealed weapons or have confronted another person with a gun are more than twice as likely to drink heavily as people who do not own guns, according to a study by UC Davis researchers.[/quote]

    Back when I dated a gal who attended UC Davis, when I was stationed in Sacramento, I met two professors from UC Davis. Both were jerks. Both were drinking. Both were at a bar. Both were in California. By gross statistical negligence I could conclude California professors who drink are jerks. That would, however, be an undeserved slam on my first profession which heavily involved the wonderful science of statistics, so I won't defame the practice of statistics by making such a ridiculous claim, particularly as I would have to violate many of the rigorous principles of statistics to do so.

    Binge drinking, chronic heavy alcohol use, and drinking and driving were all more common among gun owners generally than among non-owners, even after adjusting for factors such as age, sex, race, and state of residence.
    Correlation, not causation.

    But alcohol abuse was most common among firearm owners who participated in gun-related behaviors that carry a risk of violence, which also included having a loaded, unlocked firearm in the home and driving or riding in a vehicle with a loaded firearm."
    Correlation, not causation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kirbinator View Post
    More churches in high crime areas. Same thing.
    Exactly.

    Quote Originally Posted by xmanhockey7 View Post
    It's a ridiculous correlation.
    The correlation is quite real. I would say it's a ridiculous conclusion. The article claimed, Wintemute is "one of the world’s foremost experts on gun-related violence." By whose standards? His? UC Davis'? His similarly statistically inept peers?

    The linked article refers to Wintemute's article: "The article suggests several reasons why dangerous behavior involving alcohol and firearms might be linked." Yes, Wintemute's article does suggest that. The statistics, however, DO NOT. Wintemute has committed the grievous sin of inserting his own pre-conceived notions into the data. BAD JU-JU.

    "“New and more comprehensive research is needed, since legislation authorizing the public carrying of loaded and concealed firearms has become almost universal in the United States,” said Wintemute."

    No. What appears to be happening is that Wintemute is looking for a government grant to carry out ridiculously unnecessary research aimed at two things: 1) Inventing false "evidence" he can use as an anti-2A person to wrongfully mislead legislators; 2) Lining his pockets with your hard-earned tax dollars.

    To that end, I ask you all to draft good, solid letters and send them to officials at UC Davis, the California Legislature, and your federal Congressmen, informing them just how out to lunch Wintemute's conclusions really are and asking them to please NOT waste our hard-earned tax dollars on such drivel.

    "According to a 2004 study done by the Harvard School of Public Health, there are 260 to 300 million guns in civilian hands in the United States. The University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center estimates that 32 percent of American households contain firearms."

    It's closer to 51%, but what the hay - It's Chicago, and it's their "Opinion," so like ********, they have one too, and it stinks.

    "Four states allow concealed guns in bars, provided the armed person does not consume alcohol which, noted Wintemute, seems difficult to enforce because the weapons are, by definition, concealed."

    This is flat out incorrect. If they can't get well-known, easily-researched facts like this correct, even the raw data in the rest of the article becomes suspect. But oh! The article was written by Charles Casey, whose e-mail is @ucdmc.ucdavis.edu! Probably in the same pin-headed "UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program." How much you want to bet these two tried to get a journalist to write it, but no self-respecting journalist (even by today's shoddy standards) would touch it?


    Quote Originally Posted by kcgunfan View Post
    This report looks to be an instance of the logical fallacy "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". Here's the appropriate answer to BS like this: "Correlation does not imply causation."
    Partly true. I spotted more than half a dozen logical fallacies in the article. The one that bobs to the surface is Denying a Conjunct (Fallacy of the Disjunctive Syllogism). Put simply, it goes along these lines: "It's never both sunny and overcast. It's not sunny, therefore, it's overcast."

    Well no, it could simply be nighttime!

    These are the sorts of mistakes made by non-statisticians (doctors are infamous for jumping to these conclusions) who enter the scene with pre-conceived notions and a noticeable lack of statistical skill. I can spot it because I studied statistics diligentyly, took a very difficult board exam and became a registered statistician. Unfortunately, such level of competence is not required for most PhD programs.

    Quote Originally Posted by xmanhockey7 View Post
    What about the fact those of us who have carry permits are far more law abiding than the general public
    That quite true fact has apparently escaped Wintemute's research, along with dozens of other thought-provoking facts.

    Besides what about the fact we live in america where A LOT of people own firearms. This study is like saying people who eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches on a regular basis consume more water than people who don't.
    In all likelihood, the real correlation is that those who live in higher crime areas are more likely to carry firearms on a regular basis, and because they live in higher crime areas, are more likely to get into a scuffle. In both cases, it's the crime rate that drives (causes) both factors, not the gun ownership. We do know, for a fact, that as gun ownership goes up and gun laws are taken off the books, crime goes DOWN. Wintemute seems to have overlooked this little tidbit, as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Daylen View Post
    How many felons do you know that have guns. They are including criminals and probably doing other things to bias the data. Its easy to have biased sample data; as long as they don't try hard for good data, it will probably look how they want.
    I agree with your point 100%, Daylen!

    Bottom line, Wintemute's comments are a joke. The entire article by Charles Casey is a joke. They're ignore other valid, pertinent data, and are a gross violation of sound statistical methods and principles.

    I'll be writing the University on this matter, along with the California and U.S. legislators.
    Last edited by since9; 11-27-2011 at 01:22 PM.
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