Results 1 to 21 of 21

Thread: Stray bullet kills Amish teen in buggy

  1. #1
    Founder's Club Member thebigsd's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Quarryville, PA
    Posts
    3,543

    Stray bullet kills Amish teen in buggy

    Just another reminder to make sure your gun is unloaded before performing any kind of maintenance or cleaning. This is a tragic event that was entirely avoidable if it is indeed confirmed by ballistics testing.

    http://usat.ly/vTi0vI
    Last edited by thebigsd; 12-20-2011 at 02:44 PM.
    "When seconds count between living or dying, the police are only minutes away."

  2. #2
    Anti-Saldana Freedom Fighter Venator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Lansing area, Michigan, USA
    Posts
    6,446
    My god what are the odds? What a incredible story. The probability of this happening must be astronomical.
    An Amazon best seller "MY PARENTS OPEN CARRY" http://www.myparentsopencarry.com/

    *The information contained above is not meant to be legal advice, but is solely intended as a starting point for further research. These are my opinions, if you have further questions it is advisable to seek out an attorney that is well versed in firearm law.

  3. #3
    Herr Heckler Koch
    Guest

    Sheriff: Ohio man cleaning gun killed Amish girl. The Impact of the Highly Improbable

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...12-20-17-50-11
    FREDERICKSBURG, Ohio (AP) -- A man cleaning his muzzle-loading rifle shot the gun into the air, accidentally killing a 15-year-old Amish girl driving a horse-drawn buggy more than a mile away, a sheriff said Tuesday. [ ... ]The man had fired the gun in the air about 1.5 miles from where Yoder was shot, Zimmerly said. State investigators were checking the rifle for a ballistics match, he said.
    Consider a semi-sphere with radius 1˝ miles, the spherical surface area is 28.3 miles^2 = 7.9x10^8 feet^2. The hemi-sphere above ground is then 4x10^8 feet^2 and the semi-sphere towards a target from the muzzle is 2x10^8 feet^2 = 200,000,000 square feet.

    http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...5+miles+radius

    Let the whole target area be a 2 feet x 5 feet = 10 feet^2 area of that semi-sphere. The target area is 10/200,000,000 fraction of the possible ends of the bullet. That's a one in 20 Million chance. The shooter is really unlucky.

    Read Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Learn Bayesian statistics on single event probabilities.

  4. #4
    Regular Member DrakeZ07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Lexington, Ky
    Posts
    1,107
    No, the girl that got HIT was very unlucky.
    I'm a proud openly gay open carrier~
    Trained SKYWARN spotter, and veteran Storm Chaser.
    =^.^= ~<3~ =^.^=
    Beware the Pink Camo clad gay redneck.

  5. #5
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Dandridge, TN
    Posts
    377

    Sad indeed

    What on earth was he thinking by discharging his rifle up into the air? Granted, I am not familiar with the area and it may be as rural as can be but if he had to fire it to empty it then why not into the ground or into a hill? Atleast SOME kind of backstop.

  6. #6
    Regular Member SouthernBoy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Western Prince William County, Virginia, USA
    Posts
    5,849
    Since it is a physical impossibility to clean a chambered firearm, one has to wonder about this incident.
    In the final seconds of your life, just before your killer is about to dispatch you to that great eternal darkness, what would you rather have in your hand? A cell phone or a gun?

    Si vis pacem, para bellum.

    America First!

  7. #7
    Regular Member 09jisaac's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Louisa, Kentucky
    Posts
    1,694
    Quote Originally Posted by Herr Heckler Koch View Post
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...12-20-17-50-11


    Consider a semi-sphere with radius 1˝ miles, the spherical surface area is 28.3 miles^2 = 7.9x10^8 feet^2. The hemi-sphere above ground is then 4x10^8 feet^2 and the semi-sphere towards a target from the muzzle is 2x10^8 feet^2 = 200,000,000 square feet.

    http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...5+miles+radius

    Let the whole target area be a 2 feet x 5 feet = 10 feet^2 area of that semi-sphere. The target area is 10/200,000,000 fraction of the possible ends of the bullet. That's a one in 20 Million chance. The shooter is really unlucky.

    Read Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Learn Bayesian statistics on single event probabilities.
    I would have to disagree with your methods. But I see what you're saying. Both where unlucky and the chances of that happening was astronomical.

  8. #8
    Regular Member 09jisaac's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Louisa, Kentucky
    Posts
    1,694
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken56 View Post
    What on earth was he thinking by discharging his rifle up into the air? Granted, I am not familiar with the area and it may be as rural as can be but if he had to fire it to empty it then why not into the ground or into a hill? Atleast SOME kind of backstop.
    Exactly, it don't matter how rural the area is it is still very irresponsible to shoot a rifle into the air.

  9. #9
    Herr Heckler Koch
    Guest
    1/200,000,000 is the size of the odds in the current PowerBall lottery.

    What precept of gun safety was violated? Cover with the muzzle that only which would be destroyed. "But he covered, aimed at nothing." No, he destroyed an angel.
    Last edited by Herr Heckler Koch; 12-20-2011 at 09:30 PM.

  10. #10
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Philippines
    Posts
    14
    Too bad for the girl. She is indeed unfortunate. We might as well learn from this incident, no matter what the situation or the area is do not shoot your gun in the air.

  11. #11
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Philippines
    Posts
    14
    The possibility is very small but there is a saying that " if it's not zero, it is still a possibility" no matter how small it is.

  12. #12
    Founder's Club Member thebigsd's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Quarryville, PA
    Posts
    3,543
    How does this thread have more posts than the one I started 7 hours ago on the same topic in the same sub-forum? Lol. I guess I'll see if a mod can combine them.
    "When seconds count between living or dying, the police are only minutes away."

  13. #13
    Campaign Veteran RabbiVJ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    ATL via DTW
    Posts
    212
    wow big rule #4 failure...
    -NRA Member, GSSF Member, GeorgiaCarry Member, Glock Certified Armorer, Glock 30SF, STI Elektra, M&P9c, NAA Black Widow .22 WMR
    -“I do believe that where there is a choice only between cowardice and violence, I would advise violence.”—Mahatma Ghandhi

  14. #14
    Regular Member Steeler-gal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Fairfax County, VA
    Posts
    562
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBoy View Post
    Since it is a physical impossibility to clean a chambered firearm, one has to wonder about this incident.
    I'm wondering too. If he fired into the air how come he didn't fire UP into the air? Wouldn't he at least have to have fired straight forward for this happen? It just sounds very off. I feel badly for the young girl and her family.


    Sent using Tapatalk
    =============================
    NRA Certified Instructor & Range Safety Officer
    Teaching classes in Lorton VA & Springfield VA
    PM me if you need a class, RSO or safety briefing

  15. #15
    Regular Member sraacke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Saint Gabriel, Louisiana, USA
    Posts
    1,222
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernBoy View Post
    Since it is a physical impossibility to clean a chambered firearm, one has to wonder about this incident.
    There's nothing to wonder about. He wanted to clean a black powder rifle. To do so he needed to clear the chamber. As you pointed out, you can't clean it if it's loaded. So, being a black powder rifle, as opposed to something like a bolt action with a cartridge which could be ejected in one piece, he started the cleaning process by taking the gun outside, charging it and firing it. That effectivly emptied the chamber. This is probably something he's done a hundred times before with no problems. Once he fired the gun the air he went back inside to clean the rifle. The bullet went on it's merry way until hitting the girl.
    As for questions about firing UP or into the ground, I'm not sure the weather conditions but being OHIO I wonder if the ground was frozen and if shooting inot frozen ground would have resulted in a ricochet and sent the bullet into a simarly unknown direction. Firing UP would still result in a bullet falling somewhere unknown.
    This was tragic in so many ways.
    Last edited by sraacke; 12-21-2011 at 05:16 AM.

  16. #16
    Herr Heckler Koch
    Guest
    A simple Bayesian analysis yields a 45° as a objective naive prior. Subjective priors would be 0° or 90°, leading to a conclusion that the event did not occur, while the media would have us believe that it did, indeed, occur.

    Now we have a suggestion of an initial ballistic angle of 45° and a final distance of 1.5 miles, who knows enough about black-powder ballistic capability to estimate the terminal energy of the bullet? What are the chances that its final energy was sufficient to have the result published?

    The 45° and 1/20,000,000 comes also from a Monte Carlo simulation using all publicly released information. Come on, who is an expert to validate my estimations or to provide better accuracy?
    Last edited by Herr Heckler Koch; 12-21-2011 at 08:22 AM.

  17. #17
    Regular Member SouthernBoy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Western Prince William County, Virginia, USA
    Posts
    5,849
    Quote Originally Posted by yale View Post
    There's nothing to wonder about. He wanted to clean a black powder rifle. To do so he needed to clear the chamber. As you pointed out, you can't clean it if it's loaded. So, being a black powder rifle, as opposed to something like a bolt action with a cartridge which could be ejected in one piece, he started the cleaning process by taking the gun outside, charging it and firing it. That effectivly emptied the chamber. This is probably something he's done a hundred times before with no problems. Once he fired the gun the air he went back inside to clean the rifle. The bullet went on it's merry way until hitting the girl.
    As for questions about firing UP or into the ground, I'm not sure the weather conditions but being OHIO I wonder if the ground was frozen and if shooting inot frozen ground would have resulted in a ricochet and sent the bullet into a simarly unknown direction. Firing UP would still result in a bullet falling somewhere unknown.
    This was tragic in so many ways.
    After I posted this, I learned that the long gun was black powder. You still cannot clean a chambered gun, but one does have to wonder what this guy was thinking. When I lived in Arlington, VA, I had a large hardwood tree stump, nicely sawed and smoothed that I kept in my basement. From time to time, I would fire rounds into it, since I was reloading back then, and I never had a problem... even up to .44 Magnum. So one has to wonder why this guy didn't have something like that or some other device, like a real bullet trap, with which to fire off a load before cleaning his gun.

    God rest and keep the soul of the young girl who suffered at the hands of this man's folly.
    In the final seconds of your life, just before your killer is about to dispatch you to that great eternal darkness, what would you rather have in your hand? A cell phone or a gun?

    Si vis pacem, para bellum.

    America First!

  18. #18
    Campaign Veteran G22shooter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Concord, North Carolina
    Posts
    249
    It just serves as an example of a rule I was given in training classes -- "There are NO misses. A bullet may not hit your intended target, but every fired bullet hits something."
    Quote Originally Posted by P.J. O'Rourke; The Liberty Manifesto
    There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences.

  19. #19
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Tucson, Arizona, USA
    Posts
    1,098
    Whenever I read of incidents like this, I pound my head in frustration while wondering WHY AM I THE ONLY PERSON I KNOW WITH A CLEARING BARREL AT MY FRONT DOOR!?!?!?!?

    $6 for a 5 gallon bucket, free sand from down the road (hey, Arizona eh?) and 10 minutes to drill drainage holes in the bottom and cut a hole in the lid and rivet in a rubber baffle.
    Last edited by PavePusher; 12-21-2011 at 11:44 PM.

  20. #20
    Campaign Veteran since9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA
    Posts
    6,787
    Always know your backstop. A dense stand of trees is not a backstop. Air is certainly not a backstop, and neither is open, level ground.
    The First protects the Second, and the Second protects the First. Together, they protect the rest of our Bill of Rights and our United States Constitution, and help We the People protect ourselves in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence.

  21. #21
    Herr Heckler Koch
    Guest
    Mean free path is effective in all of physics, but not in ballistics?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •