A simple Bayesian analysis yields a 45° as a objective naive prior. Subjective priors would be 0° or 90°, leading to a conclusion that the event did not occur, while the media would have us believe that it did, indeed, occur.
Now we have a suggestion of an initial ballistic angle of 45° and a final distance of 1.5 miles, who knows enough about black-powder ballistic capability to estimate the terminal energy of the bullet? What are the chances that its final energy was sufficient to have the result published?
The 45° and 1/20,000,000 comes also from a Monte Carlo simulation using all publicly released information. Come on, who is an expert to validate my estimations or to provide better accuracy?