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Thread: Baltimore is PROUD of having "only" 196 murders in 2011...

  1. #1
    Regular Member Dreamer's Avatar
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    Baltimore is PROUD of having "only" 196 murders in 2011...

    Yeah, congratulations on that, Mayor Rawlings-Blake and Commissioner Bealefeld. You're doing a GREAT job...

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bre...,6012046.story

    Now that Bodymore, Murderland is only the 8th most violent city (or the 5th, depending on whether you believe the FBI, or the BPD) in America, I'm sure all it's residents can rest easier...
    It is our cause to dispel the foggy thinking which avoids hard decisions in the delusion that a world of conflict will somehow mysteriously resolve itself into a world of harmony, if we just don't rock the boat or irritate the forces of aggression—and this is hogwash."
    --Barry Goldwater, 1964

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    Regular Member MKEgal's Avatar
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    Hmmm... according to the 2010 census, the population of Baltimore is just under 621,000.
    That makes the rate for murder 31.6 / 100K.
    According to the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Data Tool here, in 2009, they had a murder rate of 37.3.
    So it's come down. Slightly.
    It's still worse than DC, which is amazing.

    Let's look at some cities of comparable size (between 500K - 999,999):

    Numbers are rates of:
    overall violent crime, murder , rape, robbery, ag. assault

    Baltimore, MD . . (pop. 638,755) . . 1,512.9, 37.3, 24.7, 580.3, 870.6

    Washington, DC . . (pop. 599,657) . . 1,265.1, 23.8, 25.0, 666.7, 549.5

    Milwaukee, WI . . (pop. 604,673) . . 1,088.9, 11.9, 33.7, 516.3, 526.9

    Jacksonville, FL . . (pop. 810,064) . . 836.0, 12.2, 26.9, 291.2, 505.6

    Tucson, AZ . . (pop. 547,981) . . 649.7, 6.4, 37.2, 227.4, 378.7

    Fort Worth, TX . . (pop. 723,456) . . 585.0, 6.1, 51.1, 200.3, 327.5

    So generally the overall rate, murder rate, & ag. assault rate decrease as the ease of carrying & the number of lawfully-armed citizens increases.

    I'm curious why the rate of rape seems to (generally) increase.
    And I wonder if the spike in robbery in DC is due to the gov't?
    Last edited by MKEgal; 01-02-2012 at 10:53 PM.

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    Regular Member Dreamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MKEgal View Post
    So generally the overall rate, murder rate, & ag. assault rate decrease as the ease of carrying & the number of lawfully-armed citizens increases.
    That is a BRILLIANT bit of statistical illustration, MKEgal. THANKS!

    However, I'd be willing to bet that in some of the anomolous cities (high crime, but with low restriction on carry) like Southwest border towns in TX, AX and NM, and in cities like Miami, if we remove the homicides committed by people with ties to Mexican drug cartels (who were most likely armed by OUR OWN GOVERNMENT), they would come into line with the low-crime cities you cited.

    Statistical anomolies ALWAYS have a reason--usually isn't because some outside force has intentionally messed with the social order...
    It is our cause to dispel the foggy thinking which avoids hard decisions in the delusion that a world of conflict will somehow mysteriously resolve itself into a world of harmony, if we just don't rock the boat or irritate the forces of aggression—and this is hogwash."
    --Barry Goldwater, 1964

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
    That is a BRILLIANT bit of statistical illustration, MKEgal. THANKS!

    However, I'd be willing to bet that in some of the anomolous cities (high crime, but with low restriction on carry) like Southwest border towns in TX, AX and NM (snip...)
    Careful, now. The violence is almost all on the southern side of that border. Very little of it is on the American side.

    For instance, murder rates from the three cities in Texas with populations between 500,000 and 999,999:

    Austin Police Dept TX 2.9
    El Paso Police Dept TX 1.9
    City Of Fort Worth Police Dept TX 6.1

    MKEgal chose the worst rate in Texas, and it's still low compared to Milwaukee. El Paso, on that "violent SW border", has a murder+manslaughter rate of just 1.9 per 100,000. Baltimore's rate is almost 20 times that of El Paso.

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    Regular Member Dreamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KBCraig View Post
    Careful, now. The violence is almost all on the southern side of that border. Very little of it is on the American side.

    For instance, murder rates from the three cities in Texas with populations between 500,000 and 999,999:

    Austin Police Dept TX 2.9
    El Paso Police Dept TX 1.9
    City Of Fort Worth Police Dept TX 6.1

    MKEgal chose the worst rate in Texas, and it's still low compared to Milwaukee. El Paso, on that "violent SW border", has a murder+manslaughter rate of just 1.9 per 100,000. Baltimore's rate is almost 20 times that of El Paso.

    Point taken, and duly noted...

    Yeah, I guess those "loose gun laws" in Texas are how the Brady folk explain how the crime rate is so much different than places with really STRONG gun control like Chicago, DC and Baltimore...
    It is our cause to dispel the foggy thinking which avoids hard decisions in the delusion that a world of conflict will somehow mysteriously resolve itself into a world of harmony, if we just don't rock the boat or irritate the forces of aggression—and this is hogwash."
    --Barry Goldwater, 1964

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    Regular Member MKEgal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamer
    That is a BRILLIANT bit of statistical illustration, MKEgal. THANKS!
    The database did all the work, I just cut & paste (& added color, which is harder than it looks!).

    some of the anomolous cities... remove the homicides committed by people with ties to Mexican drug cartels
    Well, at least in FL, I did remove a high-crime city which is also high-illegal-alien-population.
    I dithered between using cities that were all near Baltimore, or cities across the US, & settled on several across the country but removing cities I expected to have high-illegal-alien-population.
    But then I started on the column below, for the cities I'd left in (& added 2 I'd removed), & I'm seeing a disturbing trend loosely associated with the ratio of people who are white, black, & brown.

    overall violent crime, murder , rape, robbery, ag. assault ; % population white / black / hispanic

    Baltimore, MD . . (pop. 638,755) . . 34w / 64b / 4h
    1,512.9, 37.3, 24.7, 580.3, 870.6

    Washington, DC . . (pop. 599,657) . . 39w / 59b / 9h
    1,265.1, 23.8, 25.0, 666.7, 549.5

    Indianapolis . . (pop. 813,471) . . 62w / 28b / 9h
    1,199.8, 12.3, 56.5, 483.0, 648.0

    Miami . . (pop. 419,205) . . 73w / 19b / 70h
    1,188.7, 14.1, 15.5 , 499.5 , 659.6

    Milwaukee, WI . . (pop. 604,673) . . 45w / 40b / 17h
    1,088.9, 11.9, 33.7, 516.3, 526.9

    Jacksonville, FL . . (pop. 810,064) . . 59w / 30b / 8h
    836.0, 12.2, 26.9, 291.2, 505.6

    Tucson, AZ . . (pop. 547,981) . . 70w / 5b / 42h
    649.7, 6.4, 37.2, 227.4, 378.7

    Fort Worth, TX . . (pop. 723,456) . . 61w / 19b / 34h
    585.0, 6.1, 51.1, 200.3, 327.5

    (I'm guessing that people can choose several 'races', since sometimes they add up to more than 100%; the ones that don't, there are other choices.)

    Quote Originally Posted by KBCraig
    The violence is almost all on the southern side of that border. Very little of it is on the American side.
    ...
    MKEgal chose the worst rate in Texas, and it's still low compared to Milwaukee.
    Haul out the dirtiest laundry yourself, so the other side doesn't have the pleasure.
    And yes, every time I get into discussions like this one it amazes & scares me how violent Milwaukee (MKE) is. And people wonder why I carry. This is the most violent city in the state, by about twice the rate of the next-worst city.


    El Paso, on that "violent SW border", has a murder+manslaughter rate of just 1.9 per 100,000. Baltimore's rate is almost 20 times that of El Paso.
    It occurs to me that the rate in El Paso might be even lower if they counted everyone in the city.
    So even with the border problem & the gun problem (handed out like candy at the bank, right?), and probably undercounting the illegals, EP's rate is ridiculously lower than Baltimore.
    Last edited by MKEgal; 01-03-2012 at 12:34 AM.

  7. #7
    Regular Member Dreamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MKEgal View Post
    The database did all the work, I just cut & paste (& added color, which is harder than it looks!).


    Well, at least in FL, I did remove a high-crime city which is also high-illegal-alien-population.
    I dithered between using cities that were all near Baltimore, or cities across the US, & settled on several across the country but removing cities I expected to have high-illegal-alien-population.
    But then I started on the column below, for the cities I'd left in (& added 2 I'd removed), & I'm seeing a disturbing trend loosely associated with the ratio of people who are white, black, & brown.

    What is disturbing is that if you attempted to publish these stats in some sort of peer-reviewed journal, you would immediately be branded as a racist, because you had the audacity to show that in cities with high populations fo a certain "minority" group, the crime rates are DRAMATICALLY higher.

    I'm not even going to go into what these statistics really mean on a sociopolitical level, or how out-of-wedlock birthrates correspond DIRECTLY to these crime rates, or how lenient court systems and "progressive" sentencing are major contributors to this problem.

    And don't even get me started on the DIRECT correlation to Democratic-voting majorities, stringent gun-control and violent crime rates.

    In MD, the highest crime rates correspond DIRECTLY to the lowest number of registered Republicans and Libertarians and vice-versa.

    However, to show just what you can do with statistics, the number of McDonalds and BoJangles per square mile also DIRECTLY corresponds to the violent crime rate in MD. (which actually MAY have some statistical validity, because early childhood and adolescent nutrition has been shown to directly effect cognitive development and advanced moral, ethical, and empathetic thought process development...)

    But pointing out ANY of these things will get you branded as a white-sheet-wearing, cross burning racist if you dare to speak them out loud in the PRM, and in many other large cities...

    Just sayin'...
    Last edited by Dreamer; 01-03-2012 at 01:06 AM.
    It is our cause to dispel the foggy thinking which avoids hard decisions in the delusion that a world of conflict will somehow mysteriously resolve itself into a world of harmony, if we just don't rock the boat or irritate the forces of aggression—and this is hogwash."
    --Barry Goldwater, 1964

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreamer View Post
    Yeah, congratulations on that, Mayor Rawlings-Blake and Commissioner Bealefeld. You're doing a GREAT job...

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bre...,6012046.story

    Now that Bodymore, Murderland is only the 8th most violent city (or the 5th, depending on whether you believe the FBI, or the BPD) in America, I'm sure all it's residents can rest easier...
    No, no. You don't understand. You see, its considered bad form on the part of the criminals in government if the subjects are killing off each other. It reflects badly on the government criminals. You have fewer subjects to milk if they're killing each other. It makes you look incompetent to the more sophisticated criminals in government at the state and federal level. Hurts your chances of moving up the ladder, you understand. The sophisticated criminals at the state and federal level highly value co-conspirators who can milk the maximum from the subject population without anybody getting noticeably angry, much less killing each other. If you ain't got the skill, you ain't gettin' invited to move up the ladder.

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