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Thread: The Gary Johnson-Ron Paul Factor.

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    Founder's Club Member Brass Magnet's Avatar
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    The Gary Johnson-Ron Paul Factor.

    This primary election and the strategy further down the road into the convention and general election is turning out to be very interesting.

    As some of you know, Gary Johnson has dropped out of the Republican primary race to run on the Libertarian Party ticket. It's an intelligent move for him as he was being excluded from the debates and he'll definitely get more face time with the American people this way. It was especially obvious that the establishment didn't want two pro-liberty candidates espousing their views during the debates....after all, that might lend them credence. Wasn't Gary's last debate when he said he'd pick Ron as VP? Anyway, as he was picked up by the LP, he encouraged all of his supporters to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries.

    If he doesn't win the nomination Ron Paul will have still have some serious clout this time around. Iowa delegates were elected after vote during the caucuses which is really a glorified straw poll. Ron's supporters were asked to wear business casual and to stay after to try to get elected. It's almost a sure bet that a few of them did. This same low level strategy will take place in the other states as well, and his volunteers are very organized. In any case, if no singular candidate blatently runs away with the primary and everything stays pretty close, Ron is going to get a lot more delegates this time around including probably six from Iowa when they actually vote in the spring. With enough delegates, as I understand it, he could effectively veto a VP pick or push to get the Republican party platform changed and that doesn't even take into account the clout he will have by threatening to run third party. The establishment knows that an third party bid from RP will hand Obama the election on a silver platter. But what about the LP bid by Johnson?

    During the primary, Johnson being on the LP ticket actually helps Paul. Johnson will keep endorsing Paul for the primary, effectively reaching some people that probably wouldn't have gotten the memo. The more votes and delegates Paul gets, the more clout he'll have. If Paul would win the primary, which is a long shot but not as bad of odds as it once was, a viable strategy would be to pick Johnson for VP. I'd like that one a lot as it would set up Johnson for a presidential bid later down the road. The more likely scenario though is that Paul get's enough delegates to cause a ruckus but not enough to get the nomination. At this point he's got a few options. Get the Republican platformed changed to advance his principles, influence the VP pick or drop out and join Johnson as a VP; bringing most of his supporters with him. This would be as close to a viable third party bid as we have had in many many years.

    In the general, if a Paul-Johnson ticket, or more likely a Johnson-Paul ticket that didn't get enough electoral votes to win the presidency were instead able to get enough electoral votes to deny the other candidates 270 of the 538, more ruckus would ensue. Then it goes to the 12th amendment and more voting.

    No matter how you shake it, this one is going to be interesting! No matter what happens, personal liberty, economic freedom, and a more humble foreign policy are going to get a lot of airtime and will keep shifting the sentiment. I can see a pro-liberty candidate getting in sooner rather than later.
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    No thoughts?

    Was it something I said? LOL


    Interesting article with some of the strategy I talked about:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/ron-p...america-2012-1
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    Regular Member Beretta92FSLady's Avatar
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    Your thread speaks to the sorry state of the Republican line-up. I will state that the best shot for Paul types is to dilute the electoral vote. What you must consider is that much of the electoral vote on the Obama side will not be affected. There are States that could tip away from Obama but remember the electoral reality of 2008, Obama 349 - McCain 163. There would have to be a pretty big shift for the third party candidate to rob both sides of the electoral 270. Paul will take more votes from the Republicans than from the Democrats.

    It is an interesting scenario.
    I don't mind watching the OC-Community (tea party 2.0's, who have hijacked the OC-Community) cannibalize itself. I do mind watching OC dragged through the gutter. OC is an exercise of A Right. I choose to not OC; I choose to not own firearms. I choose to leave the OC-Community to it's own self-inflicted injuries, and eventual implosion. Carry on...

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    Regular Member VW_Factor's Avatar
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    To me its interesting to see how the GOP in general is treating Ron Paul this time around. Not so easily brushed off.
    Quote Originally Posted by Beretta92FSLady
    I am no victim, just a poor college student who looks to the day where the rich have the living piss taxed out of them.

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    Agreed it would be tough but Obama won by taking a lot of independents. He's lost a lot of them since then but they are RP's strength. Still, getting enough electoral votes to deny the mainstream parties a win would be difficult. Who knows though, maybe we're ready for a third party run of consequence; if not to actually win, get close enough to force the 12th amendment.

    It's also entertaining because RP's weakness is really the republicans most of whom would "hold their nose" and vote for Ron over Obama if Ron were able to pull out a huge upset and win the primary. I don't know which particular scenario will play out. It may indeed be more like the article in my previous post. It's funny, and gives me a little more hope when RP's campaign has to rethink their strategy because he's doing BETTER than they expected.
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    Regular Member VW_Factor's Avatar
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    I've recently started seeing FB propaganda floating around, that lists a lot of what Ron Paul runs on as "advantages" as "con's" in the pictures, statements, etc.

    Knowing that people look upon things like that as bad, when they are actually good things, makes me wonder.
    Quote Originally Posted by Beretta92FSLady
    I am no victim, just a poor college student who looks to the day where the rich have the living piss taxed out of them.

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    I'm confused, Beretta. If Ron Paul poses no threat to Obama's regime, then why wouldn't you be propping him up instead of Romney, whom you do consider a viable candidate? I mean, if you want Obama to win, wouldn't you want us to throw our votes to Paul?

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    Regular Member Beretta92FSLady's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PistolPackingMomma View Post
    I'm confused, Beretta. If Ron Paul poses no threat to Obama's regime, then why wouldn't you be propping him up instead of Romney, whom you do consider a viable candidate? I mean, if you want Obama to win, wouldn't you want us to throw our votes to Paul?
    I am stating that I think Romney will pull more moderates from President Obama than would Paul. Which is why I have encouraged Republicans to go for Romney. I have no underlying motive to assure that President Obama wins.

    I have stated on many occasions that President Obama will win a second term--and with the current Republican line-up, it is more sure now than it was a year ago. Republicans are playing an all or nothing game, and are going to lose, IMO. It's not about wishful thinking, I just believe that they have stretched themselves to far to the Right.

    I have a bet on here with the man in blue!

    I don't think I have ever stated that I support all of President Obama's policies. I will state this: if Paul is on the Republican ticket, I will not vote for President Obama but, I will also not vote for Paul. I will let the chips fall where they may.

    If it is Romney, well, I am voting for President Obama. No other candidate in the Republican line-up will dissuade me from voting for President Obama, with the exception of Paul. Paul has a long shot.

    If I really wanted to make sure President Obama won, and I could only run tens of millions of dollars FOR a Republican candidate, I would run them FOR Santorum.
    Last edited by Beretta92FSLady; 01-10-2012 at 04:32 PM.
    I don't mind watching the OC-Community (tea party 2.0's, who have hijacked the OC-Community) cannibalize itself. I do mind watching OC dragged through the gutter. OC is an exercise of A Right. I choose to not OC; I choose to not own firearms. I choose to leave the OC-Community to it's own self-inflicted injuries, and eventual implosion. Carry on...

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    Campaign Veteran G22shooter's Avatar
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    As much as policy, it's about INTEGRITY

    Ron Paul has my full support and will get my vote in the primaries.

    Why? It's as much about INTEGRITY as it is any of his policy positions.

    Ron Paul is the ONE candidate who is unimpeachable in his honesty and integrity and his unwavering commitment to restoring CONSTITUTIONALITY to our government.

    Ron Paul 2012!
    Quote Originally Posted by P.J. O'Rourke; The Liberty Manifesto
    There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences.

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    Regular Member Beretta92FSLady's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by G22shooter View Post
    Ron Paul has my full support and will get my vote in the primaries.

    Why? It's as much about INTEGRITY as it is any of his policy positions.

    Ron Paul is the ONE candidate who is unimpeachable in his honesty and integrity and his unwavering commitment to restoring CONSTITUTIONALITY to our government.

    Ron Paul 2012!
    So the question is: Will a person toss their vote for a third party candidate, on Principle, knowing that the third party candidate will lose? If not, then how can you assert to be a Principled person?

    I think that Paul should run third party, and see what happens. He might really make an impression for the viability of a third party candidate. And as previously stated by someone else on here, he might well take the 270 from both party candidates--not a bad thing!

    I am really warming to the idea of the waters being tested in this way. In fact, there are ten months plus to go, I might vote for Paul just to give support to seeing what would happen but, Paul would have to run third party!
    Last edited by Beretta92FSLady; 01-11-2012 at 08:18 PM.
    I don't mind watching the OC-Community (tea party 2.0's, who have hijacked the OC-Community) cannibalize itself. I do mind watching OC dragged through the gutter. OC is an exercise of A Right. I choose to not OC; I choose to not own firearms. I choose to leave the OC-Community to it's own self-inflicted injuries, and eventual implosion. Carry on...

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    Founder's Club Member Brass Magnet's Avatar
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    ^^

    Can you at least vote in the republican primary in your state? Whether or not he runs 3rd party, every delegate helps to effect change to the republican platform.

    What I'm starting to think may happen is an actual hostile takeover of the republican party by the libertarian wing. The way things are moving, it might happen sooner than we think. This it's something I've been thinking about for years. I even had a conversation on here about it in 2009 IIRC.

    P.S. I'll definitely vote on principle.

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    Last edited by Brass Magnet; 01-11-2012 at 08:56 PM.
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    Regular Member Beretta92FSLady's Avatar
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    I would cast my vote for Paul in the primary.

    You really think that the Republicans are going to be taken over by Libertarians? It has been on my radar as well. You know, there have been some hostile responses to Santorum, for example, but not toward his economic conservative views, rather, his socially conservative views. The Evangelicals would lose their mind, and not know what to do if they were forced to vote for a Libertarian. Libertarians are generally socially Liberal, that's a fact.

    I was listening to NPR today (I know there are people who hate NPR), anyhoo, they were talking about economic conservatives, the younger generation, and how, many of them are socially Liberal. The Republican party is losing ground in the social arena.
    I don't mind watching the OC-Community (tea party 2.0's, who have hijacked the OC-Community) cannibalize itself. I do mind watching OC dragged through the gutter. OC is an exercise of A Right. I choose to not OC; I choose to not own firearms. I choose to leave the OC-Community to it's own self-inflicted injuries, and eventual implosion. Carry on...

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    Founder's Club Member Brass Magnet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beretta92FSLady View Post
    I would cast my vote for Paul in the primary.

    You really think that the Republicans are going to be taken over by Libertarians? It has been on my radar as well. You know, there have been some hostile responses to Santorum, for example, but not toward his economic conservative views, rather, his socially conservative views. The Evangelicals would lose their mind, and not know what to do if they were forced to vote for a Libertarian. Libertarians are generally socially Liberal, that's a fact.

    I was listening to NPR today (I know there are people who hate NPR), anyhoo, they were talking about economic conservatives, the younger generation, and how, many of them are socially Liberal. The Republican party is losing ground in the social arena.
    No, most libertarians are not social liberals, they're civil liberals or "classic liberals"....HUGE difference. Most libertarians are also free market conservatives. We discussed this in another thread remember?

    Libertarians see eye to eye on some of the expoused principals of both parties, the difference is that they actually believe them.

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    Last edited by Brass Magnet; 01-11-2012 at 09:25 PM.
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    Regular Member Beretta92FSLady's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brass Magnet View Post
    No, most libertarians are not social liberals, they're civil liberals or "classic liberals"....HUGE difference. Most libertarians are also free market conservatives. We discussed this in another thread remember?

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    Sorry, they are Civil Liberal. You are right!
    I don't mind watching the OC-Community (tea party 2.0's, who have hijacked the OC-Community) cannibalize itself. I do mind watching OC dragged through the gutter. OC is an exercise of A Right. I choose to not OC; I choose to not own firearms. I choose to leave the OC-Community to it's own self-inflicted injuries, and eventual implosion. Carry on...

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    See ninja edit above, and yes I really think it could happen. I believe that libertarians pretty much share two core principals with republicans and two core principals with democrats. The R's used to be anti-war so maybe that's the reason the Republican side is a little easier to what?.....infiltrate? That and free markets and no entitlements are probably harder for the D's to swallow than the other two are for the R's.

    R's generally-Pro-free market, anti-entitlement.
    D's Anti-war, pro- civil liberty.

    Of course, neither party is REALLY for these things.

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    Campaign Veteran G22shooter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brass Magnet View Post

    Of course, neither party is REALLY for these things.

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    You're so right about that. The D's and the R's are identical but claim to be opposite: in fact, they are both STATISTS who want more and more government.


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    Quote Originally Posted by P.J. O'Rourke; The Liberty Manifesto
    There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences.

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    Founder's Club Member Brass Magnet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brass Magnet View Post
    ...a conversation on here about it in 2009 IIRC.
    Hah! Found it! http://forum.opencarry.com/forums/sh...publican-Party

    Quote Originally Posted by G22shooter View Post
    You're so right about that. The D's and the R's are identical but claim to be opposite: in fact, they are both STATISTS who want more and more government.
    +1 It's all about power.
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    Regular Member Beretta92FSLady's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brass Magnet View Post

    Libertarians see eye to eye on some of the expoused principals of both parties, the difference is that they actually believe them.
    We seriously are moving into some interesting territory. I agree with you.
    I don't mind watching the OC-Community (tea party 2.0's, who have hijacked the OC-Community) cannibalize itself. I do mind watching OC dragged through the gutter. OC is an exercise of A Right. I choose to not OC; I choose to not own firearms. I choose to leave the OC-Community to it's own self-inflicted injuries, and eventual implosion. Carry on...

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    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
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    I just registered to vote, and I am 41, all though I don't consider my self a Paul-bot, he has inspired me to partake because I just never could with the **** sandwich/********* choices of the Democrats and Republican candidates of the past. And never could align myself with either party.

    I wonder if one reason why Paul isn't winning the primaries is because many of his supporters are like me people who don't wont to register as an R to vote in the primary. Is this a fundamental flaw on getting someone who is borderline 3rd party on the ticket?

    I am going to admit I am completely clueless on this but want to make sure I get my vote in for him on the primary. This is a good excuse to go down and talk to our county auditor on the first floor of the Courthouses. I love OCing down there especially since I forced them to arrange the ropes to only block OC and guns from the upper floors where the courthouses are.
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

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    Founder's Club Member Brass Magnet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sudden valley gunner View Post
    I just registered to vote, and I am 41, all though I don't consider my self a Paul-bot, he has inspired me to partake because I just never could with the **** sandwich/********* choices of the Democrats and Republican candidates of the past. And never could align myself with either party.
    I think that's true for a lot of people. I've seen a sign like this in pictures of many of his events.



    I don't consider myself a Paulbot either; a liberty-bot maybe.



    Quote Originally Posted by sudden valley gunner View Post
    I wonder if one reason why Paul isn't winning the primaries is because many of his supporters are like me people who don't wont to register as an R to vote in the primary. Is this a fundamental flaw on getting someone who is borderline 3rd party on the ticket?

    I am going to admit I am completely clueless on this but want to make sure I get my vote in for him on the primary. This is a good excuse to go down and talk to our county auditor on the first floor of the Courthouses. I love OCing down there especially since I forced them to arrange the ropes to only block OC and guns from the upper floors where the courthouses are.
    There's long been an effort to get people who normally wouldn't register as R's to do so just to vote for Paul. I suspect you're right in some cases though. More of it is probably laziness because they have to do something. My state is an open-primary state so I don't have to worry about it.
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    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
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    I like that picture, me and my late cousin used to joke we should start an apathy party. And that it would probably be the best thing for our country. And the meetings would be real short.
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beretta92FSLady View Post
    Your thread speaks to the sorry state of the Republican line-up. I will state that the best shot for Paul types is to dilute the electoral vote. What you must consider is that much of the electoral vote on the Obama side will not be affected. There are States that could tip away from Obama but remember the electoral reality of 2008, Obama 349 - McCain 163. There would have to be a pretty big shift for the third party candidate to rob both sides of the electoral 270. Paul will take more votes from the Republicans than from the Democrats.

    It is an interesting scenario.
    But the % of votes was only ~52% Obama - ~47% McCain. A small change in % can yield a huge change in those electoral votes.
    Don't believe any facts that I say! This is the internet and it is filled with lies and untruth. I invite you to look up for yourself the basic facts that my arguments might be based upon. This way we can have a discussion where logic and hints on where to find information are what is brought to the forum and people look up and verify facts for themselves.

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    Regular Member sudden valley gunner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daylen View Post
    But the % of votes was only ~52% Obama - ~47% McCain. A small change in % can yield a huge change in those electoral votes.
    And these percentages was only of those who registered or voted, it didn't include the millions of disenfranchised, disheartened, apathetic voters.
    I am not anti Cop I am just pro Citizen.

    U.S. v. Minker, 350 US 179, at page 187
    "Because of what appears to be a lawful command on the surface, many citizens, because
    of their respect for what only appears to be a law, are cunningly coerced into waiving their
    rights, due to ignorance." (Paraphrased)

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    Founder's Club Member Brass Magnet's Avatar
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    What's hilarious is that the establishment keeps saying that Ron Paul isn't pulling any "real" republican votes during this primary race but then out of the other side of their crooked mouths they're shouting that if Ron was to run 3rd party; he'd take republican votes away from the nominee and give Obama the win. All I can say is:
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