Fiscal estimate for AB126 (shall issue)

Another reason to oppose. We don't want to expand government. I see at least 13 new positions and over $2 million the 1st year, $1 million each year after.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/2011/data/fe/AB-126fe.pdf

it's interesting; Constitutional Carry would cost nothing, but no studies have been done on that. Pemitting your right will cost more money, and they are all over that.

I agree. The State is broke as it is, Why choose a bill that would put the state further in debt while denying us something that should be free in the first place? And do you really need two computers costing $1,300 each? I can go to Walmart right now and buy an HP with a 20" flat screen monitor that types just as good for a lil over $400. Lol

If it can be proven that carry would save the state money the democrats might put their weight behind it to open up the money being taken away from schools, etc.

gunguy2009 said:

And do you really need two computers costing $1,300 each? I can go to Walmart right now and buy an HP with a 20" flat screen monitor that types just as good for a lil over $400. Lol

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Those ARE the Walllyowrld HP laptops they are getting.

The $1,300 also covers the cost of replacement. The first one (with every permit holder's private info) will eventually be "lost" when taken home by our state employee.

:monkey

McX said:

it's interesting; Constitutional Carry would cost nothing, but no studies have been done on that. Pemitting your right will cost more money, and they are all over that.

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All bills HAVE to have a fiscal estimate, so, SB93 will probably get one as well. Not sure when.

The Fiscal estimate for SB93 will read.... total cost... $ 0.00 I don't think they will ever make the money back.. 2 Million for start up & a mill each year....Sounds like another expensive unneeded government program...These Polititians love wasting tax dollars..

cough cough

Voter ID Bill anyone?

Glock34 said:

The Fiscal estimate for SB93 will read.... total cost... $ 0.00 I don't think they will ever make the money back.. 2 Million for start up & a mill each year....Sounds like another expensive unneeded government program...These Polititians love wasting tax dollars..

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I generally agree.

paul@paul-fisher.com said:

Another reason to oppose. We don't want to expand government. I see at least 13 new positions and over $2 million the 1st year, $1 million each year after.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/2011/data/fe/AB-126fe.pdf

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At $65 a crack for a permit, they would have to "sell" 32K -33K permits the first year to break even. Given the number of permits in MN, that's pushing it.
However, there are 13 new JOBS being created!! An economic stimulus for the Madison area!!

phred said:

At $65 a crack for a permit, they would have to "sell" 32K -33K permits the first year to break even. Given the number of permits in MN, that's pushing it.
However, there are 13 new JOBS being created!! An economic stimulus for the Madison area!!

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The estimate 'estimates' 100K new permits the 1st year.

paul@paul-fisher.com said:

The estimate 'estimates' 100K new permits the 1st year.

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And MN has about 80K total? Of course, a no training mandate might up the number a bit.

http://www.madfi.org/permitcount.asp says 81, 641 as of 4/2011 and that is more almost 8 years

WI must be really into "its guns".

phred said:

And MN has about 80K total? Of course, a no training mandate might up the number a bit.

WI must be really into "its guns".

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Yea and MN offers out of state permits which I believe WI won't. I agree the simplicity of the permit process as written right now will boost the number of carriers which is a good thing!

I sent a letter to Sen Olson and told him that we really NEED constitutional carry...BUT if the only thing that passes is 'permit carry' to make IT the gold standard of permits by getting reciprocity with as many states as possible and offering it to out of state residents for a slightly higher fee (like they do with hunting and fishing licenses)...

GlockRDH said:

I sent a letter to Sen Olson and told him that we really NEED constitutional carry...BUT if the only thing that passes is 'permit carry' to make IT the gold standard of permits by getting reciprocity with as many states as possible and offering it to out of state residents for a slightly higher fee (like they do with hunting and fishing licenses)...

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I was told by the NRA that if we got a permit, it would be good in 18 states. States that require training, for example won't accept it as will ones that require training that includes live fire. From what I understand, that is basically what the PA permit gets you.

In my opinion, that isn't worth it. I can get UT that is good in 30 or 33 states. The only thing and 'in-state' WI will get us that UT won't is cc in MI, I believe. Really not worth it.

paul@paul-fisher.com said:

The estimate 'estimates' 100K new permits the 1st year.

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It also estimates 5,000 certified notices of suspension or revocation a year... Wow! Given the extremely low rate of permit suspensions/revocations in other states (as published on those states' websites!), wouldn't you think that's a bit high? Cut by a factor of 10, it's a lot closer to the real number needed.

gunguy2009 said:

And do you really need two computers costing $1,300 each? I can go to Walmart right now and buy an HP with a 20" flat screen monitor that types just as good for a lil over $400. Lol

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Actually, that's not far out of line for business-class computers that are more powerful and take more abuse than most home units (due to impatient employees.) But what caught my attention was three license printers at 8 grand a piece, and the costs for database servers and storage, etc. Especially when you consider that state IT projects are always way over budget, late, insecure, buggy, and sometimes so totally unworkable that they end up getting scrapped! :banghead:

And I haven't even mentioned the 13 new full-time state employees and their related costs yet...

$65?

The price of the license is equal to the cost of issuing it plus $13 for the background check. Is that not for the cost of personnel and equipment involved in doing the checks with everything else being done by a contractor? Using the DOT vendor and assuming a license will be 4 times as expensive as a driver's license makes the cost of issuing only $9. (+$13 = $22). $52 (+$13) is the max. What have I missed? The fiscal estimate is almost a WAG. No large mailer pays $0.44 per piece for first class mail. Taking the worst possible case estimate of $2,106,164 per year that comes out to $21.06/license - including the background checks. I thought perhaps it was 100,000 over 5 years but they use 100,000 licenses per year. And since the cost is less shouldn't licenses in years 2-5 be cheaper? 5% suspension/revocation? I don't even think that opponents make that claim. It seems to be off by an order of magnitude.

paul@paul-fisher.com said:

The estimate 'estimates' 100K new permits the 1st year.

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Anytime the government estimates the cost of a program...they tend to inflate the revenue and deflate the cost. Invariably the costs double or triple while the revenue becomes a fraction of projections.

Bottom line: that estimate isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

apjonas said:

The price of the license is equal to the cost of issuing it plus $13 for the background check. Is that not for the cost of personnel and equipment involved in doing the checks with everything else being done by a contractor? Using the DOT vendor and assuming a license will be 4 times as expensive as a driver's license makes the cost of issuing only $9. (+$13 = $22). $52 (+$13) is the max. What have I missed? The fiscal estimate is almost a WAG. No large mailer pays $0.44 per piece for first class mail. Taking the worst possible case estimate of $2,106,164 per year that comes out to $21.06/license - including the background checks. I thought perhaps it was 100,000 over 5 years but they use 100,000 licenses per year. And since the cost is less shouldn't licenses in years 2-5 be cheaper? 5% suspension/revocation? I don't even think that opponents make that claim. It seems to be off by an order of magnitude.

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The way it was explained at the NRA thingy, the $52 is a maximum cost and the DOJ could determine the cost to be less and thus charge accordingly. Also there was a limiter put into the bill to prevent it from going up anymore that 1-2% pr year to adjust for various increased costs.

I have the gut feeling that some legislators are backing bills SB90 and AB126 because they see an opportunity to gain some revenue for the State. Facts prove otherwise. We can use Minnesota as an example. Minnesota has a five year track record and I presume that the number of permits is pretty stable. There is no reason to believe that the numbers would be significantly different in Wisconsin. The population of the two states are nearly identical with an equal number of large cities. The population of Minnesota in 2010 was 5,000,000. Wisconsin's population was 5,500,000. In 2009 (the last year I can find figures for) there were 63000 active permits to carry in Minnesota. For the sake of my calculations I will inflate that to 70,000 to allow for population growth and new permits over the past year and half. Using that number the following is the realistic revenue picture of the two "shall issue" bills.

Permit cost $52 Permit Fee + $13 Background check = $65

First year cost of AB126 from the fiscal study. $2,108,164
Annual cost of year 2 through year 5 $1,088,780
Total 5 year cost (Permit is good for five years). $6,463,287

Estimated number of Permits issued 70,000 X $65ea. = $4,550,000 Total possible revenue.

Instead of gaining revenue the State loses $1,913,287 over five years.

Granted my number of 70,000 could be off a couple of thousand. To break even the State will have to issue 99,435 permits. If the number of permit holders in nearby states is any measure I don't think that number is going to happen.

SB90 and AB126 will become just another tax burden instead of new revenue.


My opinions


http://www.gocra-mn.org/news/2011/02/how-many-minnesota-carry-permits-get-revoked/