deepdiver
Campaign Veteran
imported post
Interesting question actually and one for which I've never seen good stats, but then, if there were good stats out there the posed question would be moot. However, I wonder if the more interesting question is how many people would open carry if it were legal. Prior to 1987 how many people CC'd? A LOT more people OC'd than CC'd prior to Florida starting the CC revolution simply because CC was prohibited almost everywhere. Now we have states with permissive CC laws and restrictive OC laws. I would find it more interesting to know how many people start to OC after permissive preemption OC laws pass.
If we extrapolate from FL's CC numbers we see that about 2.5% of the population CC where permitted. I wouldn't be surprised if that was pretty applicable to most states, excluding, as usual when rights are concerned, the Northeast and West Coast states where, while CC is legal, it is nearly impossible for a private citizen to obtain such permit. In some areas that percentage is going to be much higher, such as in my county where, according to discussions with Sheriff's officer personnel, they have processed permits equal to nearly 1% of our county's population in the first 7 months of 2007. I would expect that we probably have about 5% of our county population with CC license. I know numerous people who are so licensed. In contrast, I have friends in St. Louis who don't even know anyone besides me who has a gun, let alone carries one. So, I would expect it likely that in rural areas, CC would be 5% or higher and in urban areas less than 1%, giving state averages of 2.5% as we see in FL.
Then the question becomes, what proportion of that 2.5% would OC if it were legal. Moreover, how many who for some reason cannot get a CC, would also OC. Furthermore, what about all those people in rural western states where it is common place to OC already. I would again expect to see a split between rural and urban dwellers. I wouldn't be surprised to see more than half of the rural CC holders OC at least on occasion. I would expect that most urban dwellers would CC while in the city most of the time.
So where does that leave us? I would postulate on the above reasoning that approximately 1-1.5% of the population would OC at least a few times a month if it were legal. Extrapolating further, that would mean that about 5-6% of firearm owners would be OCing with some regularity or between 3-4 million people nationwide assuming it were legal everywhere.
As a percentage that doesn't sound too very off to me for several reasons, one of the primary being history. I have read from numerous sources over the years that despite the hype, in the Old West only about 5-10% of people actually carried a pistol. Most of the population owned firearms, but most of them were also farmers, ranchers or town dwellers who didn't carry a pistol most of the time. I don't think human nature has changed all that much over time. If you decrease the historic levels of firearms ownership to the current of ~25-30% of the population, that 5-10% would drop to 2-3%.
Ok, maybe that was a little tortured, but I find the discussion/speculation interesting (how I missed this thread previously I don't know).
Interesting question actually and one for which I've never seen good stats, but then, if there were good stats out there the posed question would be moot. However, I wonder if the more interesting question is how many people would open carry if it were legal. Prior to 1987 how many people CC'd? A LOT more people OC'd than CC'd prior to Florida starting the CC revolution simply because CC was prohibited almost everywhere. Now we have states with permissive CC laws and restrictive OC laws. I would find it more interesting to know how many people start to OC after permissive preemption OC laws pass.
If we extrapolate from FL's CC numbers we see that about 2.5% of the population CC where permitted. I wouldn't be surprised if that was pretty applicable to most states, excluding, as usual when rights are concerned, the Northeast and West Coast states where, while CC is legal, it is nearly impossible for a private citizen to obtain such permit. In some areas that percentage is going to be much higher, such as in my county where, according to discussions with Sheriff's officer personnel, they have processed permits equal to nearly 1% of our county's population in the first 7 months of 2007. I would expect that we probably have about 5% of our county population with CC license. I know numerous people who are so licensed. In contrast, I have friends in St. Louis who don't even know anyone besides me who has a gun, let alone carries one. So, I would expect it likely that in rural areas, CC would be 5% or higher and in urban areas less than 1%, giving state averages of 2.5% as we see in FL.
Then the question becomes, what proportion of that 2.5% would OC if it were legal. Moreover, how many who for some reason cannot get a CC, would also OC. Furthermore, what about all those people in rural western states where it is common place to OC already. I would again expect to see a split between rural and urban dwellers. I wouldn't be surprised to see more than half of the rural CC holders OC at least on occasion. I would expect that most urban dwellers would CC while in the city most of the time.
So where does that leave us? I would postulate on the above reasoning that approximately 1-1.5% of the population would OC at least a few times a month if it were legal. Extrapolating further, that would mean that about 5-6% of firearm owners would be OCing with some regularity or between 3-4 million people nationwide assuming it were legal everywhere.
As a percentage that doesn't sound too very off to me for several reasons, one of the primary being history. I have read from numerous sources over the years that despite the hype, in the Old West only about 5-10% of people actually carried a pistol. Most of the population owned firearms, but most of them were also farmers, ranchers or town dwellers who didn't carry a pistol most of the time. I don't think human nature has changed all that much over time. If you decrease the historic levels of firearms ownership to the current of ~25-30% of the population, that 5-10% would drop to 2-3%.
Ok, maybe that was a little tortured, but I find the discussion/speculation interesting (how I missed this thread previously I don't know).